Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 200351
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1051 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Forecast area enjoying a rather pleasant day as high pressure
extended from southern Ontario into the Upper Mississippi River
Valley. Temperatures as of 2 pm ranged from the upper 60s to the
middle 70s with dew points in the 50s.

High pressure will continue to provide quiet weather across the area
tonight into Thursday morning. Plan on overnight lows in the upper
40s across central WI, and lower/middle 50s elsewhere.

Warm air advection/moisture transport ahead of low pressure and warm
front approaching from the Northern Plains will bring a chance of
elevated showers/isolated storms toward the area by later Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. These should be confined to west of
the Mississippi River and mainly west of our forecast area of
southeast MN/northeast IA (per the latest convective allowing
models). Otherwise, increasing mid-level cloud cover is expected.
Plan on highs in the mid 70s with overnight lows in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Friday through Friday night sees the continuation of moisture
transport/warm air advection into the area as a warm front pushes
north across IA/northern IL. This will keep shower/thunder chances
going.

Saturday afternoon into Saturday night demands closer attention as
both the GFS bring low pressure northeast across northeast
IA/western WI bring the warm sector across our area. GFS showing
ample MUCAPE: 3000-6000J/kg at 00z and still 2000-3000J/Kg at 06z
with 30-35kt of bulk shear. Thinking biggest threat for severe
storms would be east of the Mississippi River. Main caveat will be
how mucked over with clouds/ongoing shower/storm activity through
the day Saturday which of course would diminish severe threat with
reduced cape. Will maintain a close eye on this.

Another period of concern will be Sunday afternoon into Sunday night
as low pressure lifts northeast out of the Central Plains into the
region. This will bring a slug of high precipitable water Gulf air
in with decent amount of cape 2500-3500J/kg at 00z with 30-35kt of
bulk shear. So, could be looking at the potential of strong to
severe storms going into Sunday evening along with some heavy
rainfall.

Shower and isolated storms are still possible Monday/Monday night
with closed low/cyclonic flow overhead.

GFS and ECMWF at odds for Tuesday through Wednesday. ECMWF wants to
amplify mid-level ridge into the area while the GFS has a beat down
ridge with several shortwave rippling through. Resulting consensus
yields small-end shower/storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Just looking at some scattered to broken mid to high level clouds
through Thursday morning as an area of high pressure drifts
across the northern Great Lakes. The mid level clouds will
increase Thursday afternoon ahead of an area of low pressure
coming out of the Dakotas. Look for a VFR ceiling with these
clouds and there could be some scattered light showers around as
well. Right now, not expecting enough coverage from these showers
to include a VCSH in either forecast.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04


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