Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 240121

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
721 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Issued at 710 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2019

No significant changes anticipated in the grids this evening.
Some lingering showers and thunderstorms, but these should
diminish by midnight. Gusty winds to 50 mph still occurring above
timberline with some of this expected to downslope into the
foothills overnight. Cross-sections show an amplified wave from
around 03z this evening until 15z Monday morning. Will take a
closer look at the wind in the mountains and foothills, but the
rest of the grids look good.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2019

The cold upper low will continue its exit of the state this
evening with weak and drier northwest flow developing behind it.
The shower and weak thunderstorm activity from earlier this
afternoon will decrease in coverage and intensity thru the mid-
evening hours. No additional snow is expected for the mountains
tonight Monday and possibly not till late September or October.
Will expect skies to start clearing by late evening with much of
the plains trending to light drainage surface flow overnight.
Can`t rule out some patchy dense fog across the lower portions of
the eastern plains overnight and towards dawn. The pattern which
will bring  weather back to the region begins late tonight as the
upper trough fully exits the state and weak ridging begins over
the northern Great Basin.

No significant changes to current the outlook for Monday as a
much drier sounding profile will be in place reagent. For Monday
afternoon, isolated coverage of weak but gusty afternoon storms
can be expected with highs rebounding back to the 80 mark across
the lower elevations. ML capes are expected to remain on the low
side while ranging from 200-600 J/kg across the plains. Highest
capes are indicated along the eastern portions of the Cheyenne
Ridge where a few late day storms could become strong as they move
out of state.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 337 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Models have flat upper ridging and pretty weak zonal flow aloft
Monday night and Tuesday. An upper ridge builds in a bit stronger
Tuesday. The ridge axis gets east of the CWA Tuesday night, with
weak southwesterly flow aloft progged Wednesday and Wednesday
night. The synoptic scale energy is benign Monday night through
Wednesday night. The low level wind and pressure fields show
normal diurnal wind patterns mixed with some southwesterly
downsloping all 5 periods. Moisture-wise, there is some progged in
the mid and upper levels, but it looks drier than is has been of
late. Late day/evening Tuesday, there is an increase in low level
moisture over the eastern and northeastern border of the CWA. The
CAPE fields show minimal amounts Monday evening. CAPE is higher
late day Tuesday over the mountains and the eastern border. There
is better coverage on Wednesday with the highest values over the
eastern border. The QPF fields show a tad of measurable rainfall,
mainly over the southern CWA late day Tuesday. Will go with no
pops Monday evening, then some 10-30% pops for the high county
east of the divide as well as Park County late day Tuesday. For
late day Wednesday, will leave in the 10-30%s for the southern
foothills and western Palmer Ridge areas. For temperatures,
Tuesday highs will be 2-3 C warmer than Monday`s highs.
Wednesday`s highs are 2-4 C higher than Tuesday`s. For the later
days, Thursday through Sunday, weak southwesterly flow aloft on
Thursday will gradually gave way to nearly no upper level flow
and high pressure aloft right over Colorado later Friday through
Sunday. Moisture does not look great all four days and the airmass
looks to warm up with above normal temperatures expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 710 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2019

VFR conditions will remain in place through Monday. Expect light
drainage winds tonight. For Monday, models are in good agreement on
west to northwest winds starting around 17Z with gusts near 20
knots through 01Z. Monday night wind speeds will decrease as they
acquire a dominantly south, then west component.


Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Jackson County Sheriff reported continued impacts and high water,
and water levels were only slowly receding. Therefore, we`ll
continue the Areal Flood Warning for much of the low lying areas
into Monday. With regard to the North Platte River at , it
appears to have crested near 8.2 feet earlier today, but will only
slowly recede through Monday. Flood Warning for this stretch of
the North Platte will also continue into Monday before water
recedes below flood stage.




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