924
FXUS64 KBRO 101745
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1245 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The most recent surface analysis indicates a cold front stretching
from Southeast Texas to the Hill Country to the Big Bend. During
the period, the front will gradually ease from north to south
through the BRO CWFA. Although dry weather will occur today,
isolated convection will develop over the western portion of the
region tonight, with all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley experiencing an equal chance of isolated showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday courtesy of the close proximity of the
front and some weak disturbances within the 500 mb layer.

Meanwhile, temperature-wise, the ridiculous heat that plagued Deep
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will vanish for now due to the
frontal approach and passage and increased cloud cover with the shot
of isolated precipitation. Still, slightly above normal to above
normal daytime highs and overnight lows are forecast, but nowhere
near the record-breaking values that occurred on Thursday due to the
dryline and downslope heating off of the higher terrain of neighboring
Mexico.

Finally, elevated seas will result in a Moderate Risk of rip currents
at the local beaches through the short term forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A stalled frontal boundary along the US/Mexico border Saturday night
will lift back north on Sunday as a warm front. Lows Saturday night
are expected to fall in the mid to upper 70s with mostly cloudy
skies. Light easterly winds Saturday night will increase and become
southeasterly on Sunday as the warm front advances northward. Sunday
will be warmer with highs ranging from the 80s near the coast to the
low to mid 90s elsewhere. With the return of southerly winds and
high pressure over the SE CONUS, temperatures will steadily warm
through the upcoming week with triple digits returning to the Rio
Grande Plains by Monday and spreading into the mid-Valley by
Thursday, except for the 80s near the coast. Meanwhile, the
overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the 70s.

Weak overrunning, a few disturbances moving overhead and onshore
flow will keep chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
Saturday night and into Monday afternoon and again on Thursday.
The Storm Prediction Center /SPC/ has all of Deep South Texas in a
general thunderstorm risk for Saturday night through Sunday night.
The best chances of showers and thunderstorms will be across the Rio
Grande Plains and the northern Ranchlands. However, isolated rain
chances are forecast across much of the area Monday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

MVFR conditions are expected to continue today at BRO and HRL as
some lingering visibility reductions continue through the
afternoon. Meanwhile VFR conditions are expected at MFE this
afternoon. Light to moderate easterly winds will continue to
bring additional moisture to the area. This will likely result in
ceilings dropping to IFR levels again tonight, with conditions
returning to MVFR after sunrise Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Now through Saturday: A weak cold front is forecast to ease
through the western Gulf of Mexico during the period. This will
generate light to moderate winds and generally moderate seas along
the Lower Texas Coast for the end of the week into the first half
of the weekend. Neither Small Craft Exercise Caution nor Small
Craft Advisory are anticipated to be needed.

Saturday night through Thursday...Moderate easterly winds Saturday
night will become southeasterly on Sunday as a warm front pushes
north across along the Lower Texas Coast. Moderate winds and seas
will prevail through the period. Small Craft Exercise Caution
conditions will be possible, mainly Sunday, due to elevated winds.
Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible at times Saturday
night through Monday and again on Thursday which could locally
enhance winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             92  78  90  77 /   0  10  20  10
HARLINGEN               92  75  90  74 /   0  10  20  10
MCALLEN                 96  78  92  77 /   0  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         96  75  92  75 /   0  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  78  82  78 /   0  10  20  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     88  77  86  76 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....63
AVIATION...60-BE