Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 200540

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...VFR under clear skies and light southeast winds
prevail through Saturday morning as high pressure overhead
maintains fine flying conditions. The surface ridge moves off to
the east with the local pressure gradient strengthening Saturday
afternoon with some gusts around 20 knots.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 645 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue as high pressure spreads
over the area. Winds will become moderate to breezy from the
southeast on Saturday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): A beautiful start
to the holiday weekend in Deep South Texas with low humidity and
relatively light northerly winds. Mid-level ridge slides over the
state through the short term, keeping conditions very comfortable
and quiet weatherwise. As surface high pressure moves across the
Gulf of Mexico, southeasterly winds will begin to pick up on
Saturday afternoon, especially along the lower Texas coast, and a
few clouds may begin to appear by Saturday night. Temperatures
reach into the mid and upper 80s today and gain a degree or two
for most locations tomorrow, with low 90s possible in the western
brush country and upper RGV. Overnight temperatures once again dip
into the mid and upper 50s, with mid 60s expected Saturday night
due to increasing low level moisture and a few clouds.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday): The longer range forecast
period will be dominated by a large and deep 500 mb trough that
will dig east from the Desert SW pushing towards TX by next Tues.
This 500 mb trough is expected to move over TX around midweek
increasing the upper level divergence over the region boosting up
the conv chcs a bit. This trough axis is then expected to close
off over the state and exit the region on Thurs which will allow
for drier and more stable air to move into the region for the
latter half of next week. Any surface front associated with this
system will be pretty weak and serious CAA is not expected over
the RGV as the system exits the area to the east. Mainly expect
generally lower dewpoints in the wake of the system which will
lower the overnight lows.

The GFS and ECMWF are in generally good agreement in the handling
of the synoptic pattern throughout the longer range period. The
ECMWF is a little bit warmer for highs next Thurs and Fri and
cooler for lows versus the GFS. This indicates that the ECMWF may
be tapping in a bit drier air in comparison to the GFS.
Both models are in pretty good agreement on the overall level off
moisture and instability advection ahead of this next 500 mb
system. So will maintain slgt chc/chc pops from Tues through Thurs
Night with the best conv chcs late Wed. Will also go close to a
model blend for high/low temps through Day 7/8.

Overall forecast confidence in the longer range forecast period is
above average at this time due to the decent model consistency.

MARINE (Now through Saturday Night): Light northerly winds become
southeasterly as high pressure moves out over the Gulf of Mexico
this weekend. Marine conditions continue to improve into Saturday,
before increasing southeasterly winds Saturday afternoon through
Saturday night gradually build seas into Easter Sunday.

Sunday through Wednesday Night: The PGF ahead of the next 500 mb
trough moving east towards TX early next week will strengthen
resulting in stronger S/SE surface winds along the lower TX
coastline. This will likely push conditions up near
SCEC/borderline SCA territory starting Sunday for both the Laguna
Madre and the lower TX Gulf waters.




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