Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 220214
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1014 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate regional weather conditions through
Tuesday with fair weather and a long awaited return of warmer
weather. The next chance of rainfall occurs by Wednesday into
Thursday of next week as low pressure tracks through the
northeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1012 PM EDT Saturday...The forecast remains on track this
evening and no significant adjustments were needed with this
update.

Previous discussion...Our long-awaited stretch of milder
spring weather has finally arrived this afternoon as expansive
high pressure builds across the northeast with ample sunshine.
Afternoon temperatures have climbed quite nicely, reaching 54F
here at KBTV as of mid-afternoon as low level lapse rates have
trended superadiabatic in the lower few hundred meters. This has
also fostered some modestly gusty west to northwest winds to 25
mph, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area as
the boundary layer has deepened to approximately 850 mb.

For tonight through Sunday night fair and dry weather will continue
as the center of the surface high drifts overhead. Expect wider than
normal diurnal temperature ranges as the dry nature of the airmass
fosters good radiational cooling at night and deep boundary layer
mixing during the afternoon. As such, blended MOS-based guidance was
leaned upon quite heavily to govern daily spreads offering lows
mainly in the 20s for both nights with customary variability as the
Champlain Valley holds a tad milder and portions of the Adirondacks
fall into the upper teens. For Sunday afternoon this predicated
raising inherited maximum values by some 5 to 7 degrees as readings
top out in the upper 40s to lower 50s in the mountains, and ranging
through the 50s in the valleys. Winds to remain west to northwest,
but a little less gusty than today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 341 PM EDT Saturday...Ridging aloft building as surface
high pressure remains across fa and plenty of sunshine. 850mb
temps 3-4C and 925mb temps 8-9C thus looking at L-M60s possible
for Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 341 PM EDT Saturday...Upper and surface ridging beginning
to slide east on Tuesday with SSW flow and increase in high-mid
level moisture, thus increasing clouds. 850mb temps 4C and
925mb temps 9-11C thus looking at M60s perhaps even some U60s if
cloud cover is slower to advance.

By Tuesday night-Wednesday potential weak, diffuse phasing of
northern-southern stream shortwave troughs across the Upper Ohio
Valley. Given it`s weak and diffuse, the details in timing of
precipitation Wed-Friday.

Previous shift summarized this period well. The GFS suggests light
precipitation on Wednesday, and again Friday. The ECMWF suggest a
more phased soln with a consolidated coastal low Wednesday into
Thursday, with drier weather for Friday. Overall predictability of
the pattern is considered lower than normal. At this point, have
indicated low likely PoPs (50- 60%) for Wed/Wed night, followed by
chance PoPs (30-40%) Thu-Fri for periods of rain showers. Not
expecting any heavy precipitation at this time. Abundant clouds and
potential precipitation should bring slightly cooler temperatures,
with highs mainly in the mid-upr 50s for Wednesday, Thursday, and
Friday, and lows in the upr 30s-mid 40s.

Potential greater phasing on Sat, yet details still differ should
mean Saturday is a wetter day than Friday with surface low pressure
largely elongated across the northeast.

Looking at Hydro...still decent amount of snow in the mountains and
upcoming weather will promote snow melt, especially Monday-Tuesday.
However, rainfall seems showery with rainfall amounts largely around
1/2 inch for the next 7 days. Mountain watersheds will see rises
through the week due to the combination of snow melt and rainfall
but all ensemble guidance and climatology suggest more rain is
needed for any issues. Still worth looking at future forecasts for
any possible changes to rainfall amounts.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...VFR through the forecast period. SKC with
no precipitation or restrictions to visibility expected. Winds
light and variable overnight, then light west/northwesterly
once again after 14Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...Hastings/JMG
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Hastings/JMG



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