Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 151719
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
119 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is beginning to build into the North Country.
Mostly dry conditions will prevail for the next several days.
Highs will be near seasonal norms and then gradually become
above normal towards the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1023 AM EDT Sunday...Temperatures have been warming
quickly under mostly clear skies this morning. Our current temps
are already just 4-7 degrees away from forecasted highs so went
ahead and bumped up temps a degree or two as cloud cover this
afternoon with the approaching shortwave should stifle
temperatures this afternoon. Based on recent radar imagery,
have tapered PoPs off for today and even tonight as a plethora
of dry air should prevent much, if any, precipitation making it
to the ground. Enjoy a beautiful late summer North Country Day!

Previous Discussion...
A compact upper shortwave advects into the North Country on
Sunday, but better dynamics and moisture remains south of the
area. Some virga will be possible as the the shortwave pushes
east. Otherwise, we will be partly to mostly cloudy with highs
near in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows should cool
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Another upper shortwave pushes south into our area Monday
morning. Similar to Sunday, lack of moisture and dynamical
support, along with strengthening surface high pressure should
keep precipitation to a minimum. Best chances for very light
showers will be across the Adirondacks and southern VT.
Otherwise, another dry day with highs in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 404 AM EDT Sunday...A northerly low-level flow sets up Monday
night into Tuesday with cold advection allowing 850 temps to fall to
3-5C early Tuesday before moderating back to 5-7C especially west of
the Greens Tuesday afternoon. With the cold pocket at 850 and north
to northwest orographic lift expecting a decent amount of fair
weather stratocu in the short term, gradually lessening except a bit
more persistent in the NEK and eastern VT as the cold pocket
gradually moves east and high pressure drifts southward through the
region. All in all there should less clouds west and more east and
temperatures will follow suit with lows mainly in the 40s and highs
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 404 AM EDT Sunday...The long term period looks mostly sunny and
dry with temperatures warming above normal by Wed through Sat.

Our weather pattern will be dominated by an amplifying upper level
ridge aloft to our west with a mainly dry northwest flow over our
region. High pressure at the surface Tue slowly drifts over our
region then off to our south and east by Thu and Fri allowing
temperatures to moderate right into Saturday. 850 temps climb from
about 7C on Wed to 10C on Thu to 13C on Fri/Sat.

Normal high temps will be in the upper 60s next week so we`ll be
looking for daytime highs in the lower 70s Wed, mid 70s Thu, and
upper 70s to near 80 by Fri/Sat. Lows will be coolish with lots of
40s and a few 30s Wed morning but climbing a few degrees each
morning to be in the 50s area wide by Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Winds will continue to shift from the
southwest to west this afternoon with a broken cloud deck around
10,000 ft. Winds should generally remain 10 knots or less but
occasional gusts at most terminals cannot be ruled out given the
degree of warming so far this afternoon. A mix of fog and low
stratus will develop overnight with IFR to LIFR fog developing
at KMPV after midnight with IFR ceilings developing near KSLK
several hours after midnight. This low stratus and fog will mix
out by 13Z under ample sunshine on Monday with scattered mid to
high clouds and winds once again 10 knots or less from the
west/northwest.


Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Clay/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...Sisson
AVIATION...Clay


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