Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 151940
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
340 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic high pressure will prevail into next weekend. An
inland surface trough will develop early week and will persist
over the Southeast into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
The mid-levels will consist of semi-zonal flow overhead. At the
surface, high pressure will move further offshore, allowing a
weak trough to form overhead or nearby our area. This will cause
clouds and dew points to gradually increase overnight. Though, dry
weather will prevail. With all of this factored in, lows will
be a few degrees below normal, but much warmer than they were
last night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday through Tuesday: As high pressure consolidates offshore, our
brief interlude of unusually dry/cool weather will transition to
more typical heat and humidity, accompanied by greater chances for
diurnal showers/thunderstorms.

Sunday, after a cool start temperatures should recover into the
upper 80s to lower 90s at most locations inland from the beaches.
Onshore flow will push dewpoints into the lower 70s close to the
coast/behind the sea breeze, but inland dewpoint should remain in
the 60s. As the sea breeze pushes inland, guidance suggests that a
few showers/thunderstorms will develop/dissipate, particularly
across southeast Georgia. However, a persistent capping inversion
around 700 mb suggests that coverage of convection should remain
sparse, and potential for brief/pulse severe thunderstorms should
remain low.

Monday and Tuesday, dewpoints in the 70s will become more
widespread, and PWAT values will increase into the 1.75 to 2 inch
range. This environment will support greater coverage of convection,
especially as the sea breeze pushes inland during the
afternoon/evening hours. For now, maximum inland PoPs are capped at
45 to 50 percent, but locally greater PoPs could eventually be
required. Also, the potential for isolated/brief pulse severe
thunderstorms with damaging wet microbursts will be greater as
compared with the Thursday through Sunday time frame.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A mid level short wave over the mountains Tuesday night is forecast
to dampen and shift off the GA/SC coast late Wednesday. Faster flow
aloft and a series of mid level short waves will shift over the
southeast states Thursday and Friday. The end of the week should
feature higher chances for showers and tstms. Dependent on the
timing of a significant upper disturbance Thursday/Friday, we could
see a potential for organized convection and perhaps a risk for
severe weather at some point. We will need a bit more model
consolidation before we begin to highlight a possible window with
any certainty. The region may see a bit more upper ridging to start
off next weekend. Temps each day will be above climo for the most
part.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z TAFs: VFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR through Wednesday. Brief flight
restrictions are possible in afternoon showers/thunderstorms
beginning early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: High pressure shifting further offshore should allow a
weak trough to form overhead or nearby. Winds will be from the
SE this evening, veering to the SSE or S by daybreak Sunday and
easing. Seas will be 1-2 ft within 20 nm and 2-3 ft for the
outer GA waters.

Sunday and beyond: South to southeast flow will generally remain
light, mainly less than 15 knots, to end the weekend. Then, between
high pressure centered offshore and a trough of low pressure
developing inland, winds will veer to south/southwest and will
increase in speed during the upcoming week. Winds of 15-20 knots
will become more common, especially with the afternoon sea breeze
near the coast and during periods of nocturnal surging, and gusts to
25 knots cannot be ruled out, especially overnight around midweek.
Seas of 1 to 3 ft through Tuesday will build to 3-5 ft mid to
late week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With the upcoming full moon and onshore winds, minor coastal
flooding is possible along parts of the southeast South Carolina
coast (mainly for downtown Charleston) with the high tide this
evening and again Sunday evening.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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