Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 200439

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1139 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Weak surface high pressure over Lake Superior this afternoon has
kept all but a few showers from developing. Zonal flow over the
Northland will keep things pretty quiet tonight. Areas of fog will
likely develop overnight thanks to efficient radiational cooling
and light winds. Thursday and Thursday night will see a shift in
the pattern. Deep and closed upper-low will dig into the Northern
Rockies with a jet max rounding the base of low and nosing into
North Dakota and southern Manitoba by Thursday evening. A
shortwave trough will move across the Dakotas and into Minnesota
roughly along the leading edge of the jet max. Rain showers, and
maybe a few thunderstorms, are expected to develop along and ahead
of a developing warm front. A chance of precipitation will move
into central and north-central Minnesota during the afternoon.
Thunderstorms are possible in the Brainerd Lakes, but the threat
is quite limited farther north and east. The showers will
gradually taper off overnight as they move away from the strongest
moisture advection and forcing.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Unsettled remains the theme of the extended as a slow moving
upper low affects the Upper Midwest through much of the period.
This will lead to chances for showers and storms almost every day
with a more major system affecting the area for the weekend with a
chance for a few stronger storms and heavy rainfall.

Friday will see the development of southerly flow across the area
as low pressure develops across the Northern Plains as the upper
low moves into eastern Montana. The system then looks to become
vertically stacked heading into Friday night with showers and
storms becoming possible across the Northland during the early
morning hours of Saturday as a cold front moves into the Red River
Valley. Showers and storms will remain possible through much of
Saturday as the front slowly moves through. With repeated rounds
of storms and increasing moisture from the south ahead of the
front, there is the potential for heavy rainfall over parts of the
area. PWATs continue to push higher into the 1.5 to 1.75 inch
range, but concerned that with the multiple rounds of convection
and cloud cover, there will not be enough instability to cause
excessive rainfall issues. Additionally, timing continues to look
poor for strong to severe potential. Most of the activity looks to
remain to our west Friday night and then with the aforementioned
potential for multiple rounds and cloud cover for Saturday, it
will be hard to get anything strong to severe. Still, a few
stronger storms cannot be ruled out late Friday night, especially
in the Brainerd Lakes area where gusty winds and small hail will
be possible.

12Z guidance appears to be trending towards a more common
solution for Sunday with an upper low moving out of the Central
Rockies into the Central Plains Sunday night. A surface low will
track from the TX/OK Panhandle area northeastward into southern
Minnesota/northern Iowa by Monday morning before models diverge.
THE GFS continues this low into Ontario Monday night while the
ECMWF stalls out the surface low over southern Minnesota. The GEM
doesn`t have this low at all and keeps the original upper low over
the Canadian Prairies during this period. Regardless, this will
keep showers and storms possible over the area for Sunday into
Monday and perhaps lingering into Tuesday.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal into the
weekend with the rainfall and cloud cover expected. This will
result in highs in the 60s and 70s with cooler temperatures near
Lake Superior. A warming trend looks possible over the latter
portion of the extended with some lower 80s becoming possible in
southern areas by the end of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

VFR except for patchy fog tonight. Winds will become gusty
tomorrow afternoon as the next system moves near the area. Low
confidence in the fog tonight as shower activity has been less
than yesterday and cloud cover is increasing. Due to this and the
short night increased the lowest vsbys in the 06Z taf package
from 1/2sm to 1sm or more.


Issued at 947 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

No hazardous marine conditions expected over the next 48 hours.
High pressure will remain over western Lake Superior through
Friday morning.


DLH  46  70  47  68 /  10  10  20  30
INL  47  76  50  74 /   0  10  10  20
BRD  52  74  55  72 /  10  40  40  40
HYR  46  76  51  76 /   0  10  20  30
ASX  41  68  44  71 /   0  10  20  20




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