Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 190824
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
324 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

A ridge of high pressure is sliding across the area this morning,
with mostly clear skies and some areas of fog over northwest
Wisconsin where rain fell last evening. This ridge will slide
slowly southeast across the area today, keeping the weather quiet
with generally light winds. This is a fairly good thing, as the
airmass is on the dry side with afternoon RH values in the 20 to
30 percent range, and if winds were stronger we could have some
fire weather concerns. Otherwise, the dry conditions are going to
allow temperatures to get on the warm side today, with highs in
the 50s to low 60s. Am concerned about the northwestern portions
of the forecast area around International Falls, as southwest
winds kick in there and temperatures may get a little warmer. The
ridge continues to slide southeast out of the area tonight,
allowing southerly winds to develop over the area and keep
temperatures tonight warmer than this mornings values. Have mins
overnight in the 30s to low 40s, and a large portion of the area
will stay above freezing.

Saturday a cold front will slowly slide into the forecast area,
which should serve as a focus for showers during the afternoon
hour. There is a strong wedge of warm air that moves in aloft, but
with out much moisture to work with, it will be a relatively dry
airmass ahead of the front. Also, at upper levels the main
shortwave will be up in Canada, putting the best chances for
showers up in Ontario. So, I only have some chances for showers
across the northern half of the forecast area during the
afternoon. We have some instability that works up in to the area,
but MUCAPE is only about 500j/kg, and the model soundings don`t
otherwise look very favorable- too warm aloft, not enough moisture
down low, SBCAPE even less. So, have left thunder out of the
forecast for now, and later shifts will have to keep an eye on it
to see if this has changed. Temperatures will be the warmest they
have been since last fall on Saturday, with highs in the 60s to
even some low 70s over a large portion of the area. Of course, it
will be cooler near lakes, as the majority of them still have ice.
We may see some lakes losing ice this weekend with these
conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

An overall quiet pattern is expected for the long term with no
significant systems currently on the horizon.

A stalled out frontal boundary will be draped across the Northland
on Sunday and there may be some showers ongoing to start the day.
Models are fairly similar in the placement of the front, but differ
in where they are producing precip, with the ECMWF producing showers
to the north of the front, while the GFS is to the south with the
NAM right along the front. This front is expected to start moving
during the afternoon and evening hours with additional showers
expected to develop along with a few thunderstorms being possible
across northwest Wisconsin. Showers may then linger through Sunday
night, mainly in northwest Wisconsin. Highs on Sunday will be tricky
with this boundary over the area. Temperatures to the south of this
boundary will be well above normal with near normal temperatures to
the north. Areas of northwest Wisconsin may trend warmer if the
boundary ends up more to the north.

High pressure then looks to start building in on Monday, but models
are slowing down the progression of the weekend system. The 19.00
suite of guidance continues this trend with the ECMWF and GEM
keeping showers in place for all of Monday in northwest Wisconsin
and through the morning in northeastern Minnesota. The GFS keeps any
activity to our south. All guidance then trends dry for Tuesday with
high pressure in place. The high then shifts east on Wednesday with
the next chance for rainfall arriving Wednesday night into Thursday
as a clipper-like system drops out of Canada. While the ECMWF clears
this system through on Thursday, the GFS and GEM are a bit slower
and develop another low that keeps some showers in place for Friday.
Either way, neither of these solutions amount to any significant
rainfall.

Highs will trend near normal by Monday and then slowly warm through
the week with a return to the 60s expected by late week. However, as
per usual this time of year, Lake Superior will keep areas near the
shore on the cooler side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

High pressure will keep skies clear and winds light and variable
overnight. Due to the calm conditions and remaining moisture from
rainfall during the past couple days, fog will be an issue
overnight. Ceilings and visibilities will be variable with
IFR and perhaps LIFR conditions at times through the early morning
hours. The best chance for fog will be northwest Wisconsin where
the heaviest rain fell. Fog will dissipate Friday morning leading
to VFR conditions with sunny skies and light and variable winds.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

High pressure will build across western Lake Superior for Friday
before shifting to eastern Lake Superior on Saturday. Light winds at
5-10 knots are expected on Friday before picking up a bit on
Saturday from the southwest ahead of the next system. Winds of 6-12
knots with a few gusts to 16-20 knots will be possible during the
early afternoon hours Saturday, especially in the far western area
near the Twin Ports. Waves will be around 1 foot or less over the
next 48 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  38  67  43 /   0   0  10  40
INL  62  43  66  37 /   0   0  40  10
BRD  62  40  72  44 /   0   0  10  30
HYR  61  34  69  44 /   0   0  10  30
ASX  59  36  67  42 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJH
AVIATION...JS
MARINE...BJH



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