Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 241110

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
610 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Issued at 402 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2018

Satellite and upper air data early show a large ridge dominating
the center of the Nation with a notable shortwave trough burrowing
through its axis early this morning. Surface reflection from the
trough is shifting east across Kansas, following the baroclinic
zone stretching from east central Kansas into south central
Missouri. Unfortunately, our section of Kansas and Missouri will
be on the cool side of the low as it tracks east today, keeping
highs limited to the 40s and 50s this afternoon as the shower and
thunderstorm activity shifts east. Expect the coolest temperatures
near the Iowa border as storms persist through much of the
daylight hours, before finally shifting east. Temperatures tonight
behind the surface low will dip a bit, with sub-freezing readings
likely near the Iowa border.

Attention then turns towards the end of the weekend as an active
pattern looks to be setting up to start the work week. By Sunday, a
large east Pacific trough will have moved onshore, where it is
expected to deepen and slow as it makes its way across the
mountainous west. This will result in a quick adjustment in the
prevailing flow across the Plains States to the southwest by the
start of the work week. Resulting moisture advection will likely
induce a very active pattern from Sunday night through Monday and
into Tuesday with the help of precipitable water values well above
seasonally normal. Expect much of the stormy activity across
eastern Kansas and northern Missouri to fall late Sunday night and
through the day Monday as a leading trough lifts across the
central and northern Plains. And, while the stormy weather will
likely persist into Tuesday across the region, much of the
activity will likely shift it focus towards the I-44 corridor
across southern and eastern Missouri, as a cold front presses in
across eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri behind the leading
lifting shortwave Monday night into Tuesday.

Otherwise for Monday, expect warmer temperatures across the region
for the day, with highs bumping into the 50s and 60s despite the
rain. Currently, while there is a bit of shear and instability to
work with Monday, expectations are that much of the severe threat
will be focused a bit south and west of here, where the better
thermodynamics will be located. However, we do expect storms to
be efficient rain makers, given PWAT values in the over 200%
range. This may result in some flooding along area creeks,
streams, and river Monday into Tuesday; though the heaviest
rainfall totals and worst flooding threat looks to be across
southern into eastern Missouri.

For the rest of the work week...expect conditions to remain
generally on the cool side as the trough that brought the active
weather to start the week continues its transit of the Nation.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2018

State line terminals will be dealing with conditions ranging from
LIFR to MVFR as clouds continue to try and shift south, filling
in behind a surface low shifting east across Missouri today. CIGs
will start to lift later this morning as the center of the low
moves farther east, but that will likely bring gusty north to
northwest winds today. Otherwise, expect cloud cover to hold in
place through the day and into the overnight hours in the MVFR




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