Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 170347
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1047 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 254 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019

Frontal boundary, partially reinforced by cloud cover and rain-
cooled outflow from the south, has setup near the Interstate 70
corridor. This is well-defined by a fine line on regional radar and
surface observations. This boundary will continue to serve as the
primary catalyst for scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm
activity through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening.
Weak deep layer shear and marginal instability this afternoon will
mitigate robust convection and any notable threat of strong storms.
Most of the weak convection will quickly dissipate after sunset with
the loss of diurnal heating, but retain slight chance pops through
tonight into Monday for areas closest to the front. Otherwise,
models continue to hint at stratus trying to develop across the area
late tonight, and with moisture pooling near the boundary and
relatively light and variable winds, cannot rule out some stratus to
evolve. The weather remains generally inactive until Tuesday evening
into Wednesday as the next upper trough approaches the area, likely
spawning another round of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures
through mid-week will remain near or slightly below normal, before
readings gradually creep up by the end of the work week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019

VFR conditions with light variable winds will prevail through the
night with the chance of a short-lived MVFR ceilings developing in
the last morning. There is some uncertainty to how far west these
MVFR ceilings can reach with some guidance keeping them out of the
TAF locations, but there is enough of a signal to keep high end
MVFR in there for now. These ceilings should lift up to a VFR
ceiling by early afternoon leaving VFR conditions and a light
easterly wind through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Barham



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