Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 212341
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
641 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 213 PM CDT SUN APR 21 2019

The main impact through the afternoon hours will be with continued
gusty southwesterly winds up to 35 to 40 mph as low-level flow
strengthens ahead of a surface low across western Kansas. Gusts will
slacken slightly after sunset as mixing heights decrease, generally
down to 20 to 25 mph. Gusty conditions will later taper off after
midnight as the advancing surface low lifts into southeastern
Nebraska. Deep mixing within the dry air mass, combined with warming
surface temps into the low to even mid-80s will maintain an elevated
fire weather danger, as relative humidity values linger in the low
30 to 35 percent range, coincident with strong wind gusts. Outdoor
burning is thus strongly discouraged through the remainder of the
afternoon and early evening hours.

Light radar echoes are noted across central Missouri, though no
precipitation is expected to reach the surface with high cloud bases
and a substantial dry air mass in place below 500 hPa. Still
expecting to see isolated to scattered rain showers and
thunderstorms late tonight as a weak shortwave trough crosses over
southeastern Nebraska atop the warm sector. Dry air may be difficult
to overcome initially, and rainfall totals will remain on the meager
side of things, generally less than a tenth of an inch throughout
the area. Some storms across far northwest Missouri may produce
strong wind gusts at the surface with DCAPE values approaching
800 J/kg as storms push through the area, compounded with existing
increased surface flow. As shallow low-level moisture fields
increase Monday morning, stratus will continue to overspread the
region, with resulting cooler surface temps expected for Monday
despite ongoing warm advection. A cold front will slowly push
through northwest Missouri Monday night, with additional rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms possible ahead of the front.
Forcing will be limited to convergence along the front as the
shortwave trough is pushed well northeast, far displaced from the
frontal boundary. The boundary will later stall across southern
Missouri as a large mid-level trough deepens over the
southwestern CONUS. The stalled boundary will serve as a focus for
additional precip chances in the Tuesday to Wednesday time-frame,
though no severe weather is expected during this time.

Temperatures will undergo a cooling trend from Tuesday to
Wednesday in the wake of the passing frontal boundary, to more
seasonal values. By the late week, southerly flow will return to
the area ahead of the next storm system, expected to impact the
area beginning as early as Saturday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT SUN APR 21 2019

Gusty winds will continue for the next couple hours, and while we
expect some decoupling in a couple hours when the sun goes down
there is still a good chance of persistent mixing through the
overnight hours, which will keep gusts up around 20 to 30 kts
overnight. This should mitigate the low level wind shear, but
given the chance that the surface could decouple at some point -
thus elevating concerns for low level wind shear - will keep the
mention of strong winds just off the surface. Low clouds move in
through the day on Monday. Could see a scattering out of the
clouds with the daytime heating, but MVFR/VFR may bounce back and
forth through the entire day on Monday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Leighton


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