Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 250059

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
859 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019


Only some minor trend adjustments to near term with temp/dewpt/sky
cover given recent obs. Expecting quiet overnight with some
building cirrus given upper moisture advection ahead of amplifying
trough to the west. Previous discussion follows...



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 807 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019/


00z Aviation discussion below.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 241 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Models in general agreement with the Thursday night system, however
there are differences in the timing with the GFS begin the faster of
the models. Have gone with a compromise on timing with a slightly
heavier lean on the GFS. High pressure will continue over the CWA
tonight and then shift eastward as the system over the Southern
Plains moves toward Georgia. A piece of energy currently along
the TX/LA coast moves rapidly northeast and across northwest GA
late tonight. Models are trying to squeeze out some precip.
Atmosphere still quite dry but there could be a sprinkle or light
shower but have added a 20 pop across northwest GA late tonight.

The GFS/NAM both bring a stronger vort lobe into eastern AL/western
GA by 00Z Friday and several of the hi-res models have picked up on
this bringing scattered showers into the west parts of the CWA
Thursday afternoon. This energy spreads across the CWA Thursday
night and have continue with likely pops. There is enough MLCAPE to
keep a slight chance of thunder going for Thursday afternoon and



.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

To begin the extended period, an upper level trough and an
associated surface front will be passing eastward through the
southeastern CONUS. Scattered to numerous showers will be ongoing
ahead of the frontal boundary on Friday morning. Instability
associated with this system is marginal but is still sufficient to
warrant a mention for a slight chance of thunderstorms on Friday.
Model guidance remains somewhat inconsistent with respect to when
the precipitation exits the forecast area on Friday. The latest GFS
solution moves the bulk of the precipitation out by Friday
afternoon, with the exception of some wrap-around across far north
Georgia. The latest ECMWF and NAM are still running a little slower,
but nonetheless move showers and thunderstorms out of the area by
Friday night.

High pressure will then build into the area on Saturday behind the
front, leading to clearing skies and drier conditions during the day
Saturday. These dry conditions will be fairly short-lived as weak
cold front moves across the area on Sunday. The majority of the
moisture associated with this system is expected to remain well to
the north of the area, but there will nonetheless be some increased
cloud coverage and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
developing along the front. The highest rain chances will are only
expected to be slight PoPs focused across north Georgia late
Saturday night into Sunday.

Long-range models remain inconsistent towards the beginning of next
week. However, an early look indicates that the Bermuda High over
the western Atlantic could allow for persistent southerly flow to
set up over the area, bringing in warmer than average temperatures
and higher humidity values.



00Z Update...
VFR conditions and cirrus through much of Thursday, then gradual
decreasing of cigs ahead of next frontal system. Chance for -SHRA
and MVFR cigs increasing from 23-05z Thursday evening and becoming
likely after about 05z Friday. Chance for TS too low to include in
fcst but cannot be ruled out. Winds stay SW thru period -
initially 5-11 kts decreasing light to calm overnight then back
near 10-11 kts with low end gusts for Thursday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium on late period precip and cig timing.
High on all else.



Athens          58  82  62  76 /   5  10  60  60
Atlanta         61  80  62  75 /   5  30  60  50
Blairsville     55  76  57  68 /  10  20  70  70
Cartersville    59  80  61  74 /   5  40  60  50
Columbus        59  81  64  78 /   5  30  60  50
Gainesville     60  79  61  73 /   5  20  70  60
Macon           56  81  62  79 /   5  10  60  60
Rome            58  80  60  75 /  10  50  70  50
Peachtree City  57  80  62  76 /   5  30  60  50
Vidalia         60  87  64  81 /   0   5  60  60




SHORT TERM...17/Baker
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