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000
FXUS63 KFGF 190246
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
946 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

No significant changes to ongoing forecast. CU dissipating as
expected and mostly clear skies expected tonight. 3.9 micron
imagery is consequently pulling out nicely flooded areas of the
Red River from Oslo to Pembina. Temperatures will fall into the
30s, with much of the area around or just under the freezing
point.

UPDATE Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Minor adjustments to sky trends west of the valley, where CU had a
bit more coverage. This will be short lived with expectation of CU
dissipating a few hours after sunset. Also needed some wind
adjustments across Devils Lake region as winds were more westerly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

The shower activity has been drying up across the Devils Lake
region. There still may be a stray shower out there, but trends
are looking drier. Looking ahead into tonight, skies are expected
to clear with diminishing winds. This setup may favor some patchy
fog, but confidence in where or when is pretty low right now. For
that reason will let the next shifts monitor that potential.
Friday looks like a very nice day, although southwest winds will
become a little gusty later in the afternoon into the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Next chance of rain enters the forecast by late Friday night, but
mainly north of the highway 2 corridor. Model agreement with this
system not the best, but precipitation amounts continue to look
light.

The extended forecast contains near seasonal temperatures and low
chances for pcpn through the middle part of next week. An
approaching cold front during Sat will be accompanied by a wide
range in temps, from near 60 over to the northwest to about 70
around the extreme southern valley and west central Minnesota. Rain
will be patchy with amount totals under a quarter of an inch, and
likely less than one tenth of an inch.

After the frontal passage cooler, but still seasonable temperatures
with highs in the 50s to near 60 will continue Easter Sunday into
next week. There may be another chance for some patchy precipitation
near the middle of next week, but at this point guidance is trending
to a storm route south of the Northern Plains. Atmospheric
temperatures will assure that anything falling will be in liquid
form. By Wed/Thu a warming trend should loft temps back into the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

VFR...west to northerly winds decreasing in velocity this evening.
Will need to monitor areas with lightest winds for fog near
sunrise, but not enough confidence to mention at TAF sites.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Major to moderate flooding continues on the main stem Red River with
the primary crest currently hovering in the Drayton area working
slowly north to Pembina over the next week. A second crest from
recent rain and snowmelt is working into the system with stages
rising back into the major category at Fargo, Abercrombie and
marginally at East Grand Forks.

Minor to moderate flooding continues on the tributaries on the MN
side and with less rain and snow less pronounced rises on the ND
side with basins in NE ND seeing river levels at or less than
bankfull. The next risk for rain will come this weekend with the
best chances along and north of Highway 2, generally a quarter inch
or less is expected.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

Areal and river point flood warnings continue across portions of
the region. Refer to the latest flood warnings and statements for
detailed information on specific locations.

&&
$$

UPDATE...Speicher
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...WJB/Godon
AVIATION...Speicher
HYDROLOGY...WJB