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000
FXUS63 KFGF 180859
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
359 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...


- West to northwest winds occasionally gusting to 45 mph will
  result in difficult travel conditions for high profile
  vehicles and blow around unsecured objects today. Locations
  impacted include parts of eastern North Dakota and the
  northern Red River Valley in northwest Minnesota.

- Scattered snow showers are forecast across the region today
  through Friday, with the highest chances during the afternoon
  periods north of Highway 2. There is a 20% chance in impacts
  from brief visibility reductions under half a mile this
  afternoon through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A strong vertically stacked mid/upper low is in place over southern
Manitoba and will tend to slowly move east over the next several
days, resulting sin strong surface gradient and strong
unidirectional winds within a 3-5 kft dry adiabatic mixed layer.
Besides nighttime periods where there will be "some" decoupling
windy conditions should persist and there is a signal for sustained
within advisory criteria along/west of the Red River Valley. The
strongest signal in NBM4.2 probs (supported by sounding analysis) is
west of the escarpment in favored terrain regions and with more of
a westerly (than northwesterly) component to the flow this makes
sense (based on past events). Mixed layer winds aren`t "quite" as
strong during the day Friday, so confidence in advisory impacts is
lower (but should be monitored).

Regarding snow showers/visibility impacts: Within cyclonic flow/cold
pool, steep lapse rates should support pockets of snow
showers/flurries. Due to weak instability (up to 250 J/KG MUCAPE)
and unidirectional flow there may be a tendency for showers to
organize into HCR type bands, and CAM`s reflect both cellular and
elongated HCR type signals. The best chance for impacts in these
convective showers may be Friday as a shortwave drops south around
the back side of the mid/upper low. As this happens there may be
enough forcing/organization to cause more "horizontal" organization
of banding and squall type convective features (brief and not
resolved at this time by CAMs). Wet bulb profiles should support the
mix or change over in areas where air temps are above freezing at
the surface (will be variable in how p-type evolves). Due to warm
ground temperatures any accumulations (dusting to 1" based on HREF
PMM/NBM 25/75 probs)may struggle to actually accumulate/cause
impacts. Visibility reductions will be the primary concern. Due to
air temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s at time of most organized
showers, it will take higher rates to achieve reductions to 1/2 mile
or less (based on Canadian blowing snow model). Where these types of
impacts actually occur will be hard to anticipate, though there is a
stronger consensus within HREF towards our northeast Lake of the
Woods region Friday.

Beyond Friday: The mid/upper low transitions east while the pattern
becomes a bit more complicated (more quasi-zonal) with the possibility
for another mid-upper low to move into the region from the Pacific
NW (interacting with stronger Hudson Bay low to the northeast)
through early next week before a more consistent signal for westerly
flow and rising heights. The evolution of the pattern should support
a general warming trend and a period of possible rain (lighter
signal) Monday followed by dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Scattered low to mid level clouds are working southward into the
region, which should bring ceilings down into MVFR territory as
we head through the overnight hours. Winds have diminished
slightly, but will gradually increase as sunrise approaches.
Look for west to northwest winds of 20 to 25 knots with gusts up
to 35 knots as we head through the day on Thursday. Light snow
is possible at KDVL, KGFK, and KTVF starting around mid morning;
however, coverage will likely be scattered. Reductions to
visibility are possible, but are expected to be brief, with
minimal impacts expected.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>029-038-049-052-054.
MN...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for MNZ004-007.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...Lynch