652
FXUS63 KFGF 140906
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
406 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...


- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms this
  evening into tonight for much of the area. there is a level 1
  out of 5 risk for severe storms Tuesday afternoon over parts
  of west central Minnesota. The main hazards will be gusty
  winds, hail, and flash flooding.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...Synopsis...

At 500 mb we have a 50-60 kt 500 mb jet that is moving west to
east along the International border this early morning and
progged to drop gradually south over time tonight into Tuesday.
This is as a short wave in northern Alberta movfes south the
next 24-36 hours.

A few rain showers from mid cloud will be over northeast ND into
far northwest MN this morning, very light, in an area of 850 mb
warm advection which is situated along the Intl border.

..Severe Storm Risk late today/night and again Tuesday...

A frontal zone separating much warmer air to the south vs cooler
air north will be over northern ND into far northern MN today.
The surface boundary is ill-defined to start today, but will
become better established as southerly flow sfc to 850 mb
strengthens this aftn. Expect high temps upper 80s to around 90
south of Hwy 2, with the likely frontal zone boundary setting up
near Highway 2 this aftn. Showers will remain possible north of
this developing boundary this morning, with scattered showers
and t-storms north of the boundary this aftn.

South of the boundary in the very warm airmass, look for dew pts
to climb well into the 60s with MUCAPE over 2000 j/kg. Soundings
do show a warm layer just above 850 mb, and this warm layer does
likely keep any convection at bay until very late afternoon and
evening when depending on temps cap may break. CAMs indicate
this to be in central or east central ND. The front will
continue to sag south tonight with a good chance of showers and
t-storms most areas as it does so. Severe risk is most likely
tied to very late aftn and evening when instability is maxed
out. 0-6 km shear is 35-45 kts near the boundary. Near or just
south of the frontal zone brief supercells may form, but will be
isolated in coverage due to warm layer. Expectation is t-storms
will grow into tonight with a modest 850 mb jet of 25-30 kts
advecting in moisture near and just north of the frontal zone as
it sags south. Would think that any supercell development is
short lived before more clusters of t-storms form. Severe
potential may continue past 06z.

Tuesday will see the frontal zone sag southeast into west
central MN in the aftn. South of the frontal zone instability
will develop but this time more focused in northeast, central
into southwest MN into eastern SD in the aftn. Frontal zone may
be close enough to west central MN so that an isolated severe
storm is possible mid afternoon but overall majority of the
instability and storm action is likely south/southeast of fcst
area.

PWATs do approach 2 inches tonight with 850 mb front and south
winds farther north than the sfc boundary. Thus some overruning
occurring and most model data suggests that far northern MN may
see heaviest rainfall tonight with a 30 pct chance of 1 inch or
more from NBM.

Wendesday will see continued shower in the cooler airmass well
north of the front as a short wave moves east thru the area.

Late week into the weekend shows that the 500 mb will remain
westerly with short waves continuing to pass thru the area every
couple of days bringing rain chances.


&&

.AVIATION /03Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR tonight will ceiling gradually dropping Monday evening
towards MVFR with smoke impacts at GFK, TVF, and BJI through
Monday morning. Some overnight showers and isolated thunder may
occasionally impact GFK and TVF but trends show things mainly
staying north. Winds pick up around noon Monday with gusts near
20kts and thunderstorm activity/coverage increasing after 18z
for all and thus the prevailing VCTS/TSRA at all sites by 00z
tomorrow. Overall aside from thunder no strict category changes
expected.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...TT