Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 240900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Upper level low bringing an area of light rain to west central MN
will quickly exit to the east this morning with rainfall amounts
generally two tenths of an inch or less. In its wake filtered mid
and high level clouds will still allow SFC temps to warm into 75
to 80 degree range. By mid afternoon the combination of daytime
heating and a shortwave moving into western ND will initiate some
scattered showers and thunderstorms in central ND. Shear and
instability remain low with less than 20kts at 0-6km and around
500j/kg of ML cape thus expecting non severe storms. This
convection will gradually weaken during the evening with an area
of showers persisting into the overnight near the center of the
500mb low along the international border. As the wave slowly
progresses east shower and thunderstorm redevelopment is possible
along and north of the Hwy 200 corridor Tuesday. Temps Tuesday
will once again be in the mid and upper 70s with westerly winds
15 to 20 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

00Z Wed - 12Z Thu

Mid level thermal ridge moves east of the area Wed night. Warm
advection precipitation and a short wave is expected for Wed
night...mainly affect the southern Red River Valley.

Thu - Sun

Long wave ridge from the Northern Plains to the Desert Southwest
will build through the period. Ridge building will temper after Sat
as short waves will move over the ridge.  The ECMWF and the GFS were
in reasonable agreement through Fri. The ECMWF was the faster
solution thereafter. The GFS was stronger with the Sun short wave.
Warm mid level temps may cap atmosphere. With the GFS stronger Sun
short wave, the GFS produces a farther south solution than the


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

VFR thru the pd. Considerable high/mid level cloud cover...with
diurnal CU esp E ND Mon aftn. Light winds all areas thru the
pd...mainly northwest 5 kts or so.




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