016
FXUS65 KFGZ 142301
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
401 PM MST Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures to continue through Tuesday, with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms bringing gusty
winds, but mostly light rainfall. A gradual uptick in moisture is
forecast during the mid to late week period, with a potential for
much wetter conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today and Tuesday...Broad high pressure currently
located over southern California will continue to gradually shift
eastward through the beginning of this week. This feature becomes
better aligned to bring moisture to northern AZ, and we will see
gradual increases in PWATs each day. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms are currently initiating along the higher
terrain. Guidance indicates that activity will ride outflows into
the lower valleys and last through the evening. Tuesday looks to
be a similar story, with just a slight uptick in coverage and
intensity. The primary hazards will be gusty outflow winds and
some dry lightning strikes, though a couple brief downpours in any
stronger storm will be possible.

Wednesday through Friday...High pressure becomes situated over New
Mexico while a weak trough off the coast of Baja California slides
northeastward towards Northern AZ. This creates an ideal axis for
southerly moisture advection, and we will see a surge in PWATs and
dewpoints. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms can be expected
each day. Added dynamics from the trough will aid in storm
development, likely leading to an increased risk of flash flooding.
Day-to-day coverage will be largely controlled by the exact
positioning of the high, as well as any remnant debris clouds from
the previous day. Convection does look to peak late Wednesday and
Thursday as upper- level dynamics from the trough look to be
overhead.

Saturday and and beyond...Moisture does tick down a little
following the passage of the trough. This is pretty far away, and
there is some disagreement in the long term guidance as to the
magnitude of the trend. Right now, it looks as if storm activity
will become a bit more isolated this weekend into early next week.
We will continue to monitor this period in future forecast
cycles.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 15/00Z through Wednesday 16/00Z...Mostly VFR
conditions expected, but brief MVFR conditions are possible in
-SHRA/-TSRA through 03Z. Also, FU/HZ expected along and NW of a
 KGCN- KPGA line. Additional showers/storms forecast to return
 after 18Z. Outside of gusty storm driven outflow winds, look for
 variable winds 5-15 kts gusting near 20 kts.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 16/00Z through Friday 18/00Z...Daily chances
for SHRA/TSRA will continue, with best chances between 18Z-04Z
each day. Outside of reduced visibilities and ceilings in heavier
storms, VFR conditions should prevail. W-SW winds 5-15 kts
gusting near 25 kts expected during the afternoons, but
gusty/erratic winds from storms will be likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Cooling trend with scattered
showers and thunderstorms each day. Some dry lightning strikes
are possible Tuesday, then more wetting rains are expected on
Wednesday. Daytime winds are southwest through west 5-15 gusting
to 25 mph each day. Gusty and erratic winds possible in and
around thunderstorms.

Thursday through Saturday...Widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity, decreasing in coverage by the weekend. Wetting rains
are likely within stronger storms. Winds west through southwest
at 5-15 mph gusting to 20 mph each day. Gusty, erratic winds
possible in and around thunderstorms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/Lewandowski
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...RR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff