Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 260316

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
816 PM MST Thu Apr 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A passing weather disturbance will deliver a stray
sprinkle or light shower through the night. For Friday and over
the weekend, high temperatures will slowly cool. Look for typical
springtime winds strongest on Friday and Sunday. A weather
disturbance will bring cooler weather and a chance for showers
from Monday into Tuesday.


.DISCUSSION...A weak weather disturbance will move east of Arizona
Friday morning. Look for isolated sprinkles or light showers
through much of the night ending by sunrise Friday. We only
made slight adjustments to the overnight forecast to lower the
chance of precipitation just a bit and decrease the cloud cover
but overall the forecast is on track.

Drier air moves over Arizona on Friday with breezy to locally
windy conditions. There could be a stray shower or thunderstorm
over the White Mountains as moisture lingers there. Above average
high temperatures will continue...with a slow cooling trend.

A low pressure center will develop off the southern California
coast on Saturday. By Sunday this low will increase the winds over
northern Arizona. By Monday morning, this low will bring chances
of precipitation over northern Arizona...along with stronger
winds and cooling temperatures. Unsettled weather will last
through Tuesday.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Primarily VFR conditions will
continue over northern Arizona throughout the next twenty-four
hours. Winds will become W-SW at 10-20 kts gusting 20-30 kts after
18Z Friday. Slight chance of -SHRA/-TSRA near the New Mexico state
line Friday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Southwest winds Friday afternoon will produce near
critical fire weather conditions across northern Coconino and Navajo
counties. Afternoon southwest breezes will continue on Saturday,
somewhat lighter than Friday. Warm temperatures are expected both

.Sunday through Tuesday...Expect breezy southwest winds each
afternoon with near critical fire weather conditions again Sunday,
mostly north of I-40. There is a chance of precipitation with
thunder possible on Monday.






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