Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 151700

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1000 AM MST Sat Jun 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonable temperatures and afternoon breezes will
continue through the weekend. A slight moisture increase will
result in at least isolated showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend, with the best chances on Sunday. Warm, breezy and mainly
dry conditions look to return for Monday through much of next


Will maintain a watchful eye today to see if isolated storms
forecast by this afternoon pan out. In all, forecast looks good
and no major updates are anticipated.


.PREV DISCUSSION /436 AM MST/...An area of high pressure off the
Pacific coast is holding the longwave trough in place across the
U.S. with a general zonal flow dominating the weather pattern for
the next week. A series of shortwave troughs move through on this
zonal flow, but most of the unsettled weather stays to our north
in Nevada and Utah.

We can expect afternoon showers and thunderstorms that last into
the evening Saturday through Monday. Expect scattered showers
and thunderstorms mostly north of I-40 with a few isolated
thunderstorms south of the interstate Saturday. The recent runs of
the HRRR model is indicating more activity along the Mogollon Rim
in the late afternoon/early evening. The hourly GFS and NAM BUFR
soundings are also showing instability extending into the LCR.

Sunday will see more widespread showers and thunderstorms north
of I-40, scattered showers and thunderstorms in the White
Mountains, and a few isolated thunderstorms along the Mogollon
Rim. Monday will see another repeat of scattered showers and
thunderstorms north of I-40 with widespread activity over the
Chuska Mountains. Tuesday will see one last shortwave brush the
Four Corners area with a chance for thunderstorms over the Chuska
Mountains. Otherwise a dry zonal flow will give us breezy westerly
winds and mostly clear skies into next weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Primarily VFR conditions will
continue for the next 24 hours. Southwest surface winds at 10-15
kts with gusts up of 20 kts through 02Z Sun. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA
between 18 - 03Z Sun from KGCN to KFLG and northeast towards the
Four Corners region. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Look for warm weather with breezy afternoon
southwest winds through Sunday. Isolated showers and storms will
remain in the forecast each afternoon across the northern third
of Arizona, with the highest chances on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Expect near normal temperatures with
continued light daytime breezes. Humidity will remain low, but a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is forecast along and
north of the Mogollon Rim on Monday. Drier weather is forecast for
Tuesday and Wednesday.






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