Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 240831

National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
331 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

The slow moving, persistent upper level low pressure will finally
shift east of the area today. We will still see some small chances
for showers as it exits, but coverage will be much less than the
past couple of days. As the wave shifts east weak upper level
ridging will move through with a weak upper level jet/trough
shifting into central SD. This should allow for two areas of showers
to possibly develop. One will be roughly along and east of the
Buffalo Ridge in southwest MN on the back edge of the upper level
wave and the other will be in central SD just ahead of the next
incoming jet max. The current forecast soundings do indicate deep
mixing with unidirectional winds from the surface to about 200 mb.
CAPE values will be minimal, generally 800 J/kg or less, so even
thunder should be pretty sparse. The only affect of any slightly
stronger updrafts would likely be wind gusts around 40 mph or so.
While this activity will be mostly diurnally driven, the wave moving
across ND may help to keep some spotty activity through the
overnight hours with just a small shot if mid level moisture and
very weak instability.

With the deeper mixing winds may end up a bit breezier today with
about 20 knots near the top of the mixed layer, so maybe some gusts
about 20 to 25 mph this afternoon. With more sunshine and a good
mixing westerly wind highs will climb into the 80s west of
Interstate 29 and into the mid 70s in parts of southwest MN and
northwest IA which will still be struggling with residual cloud
cover. Winds will diminish shortly before sunset and lead to a
pleasant Tuesday morning. Morning temperatures should start out in
the 50s in most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

By Tuesday heights will rise with warm low to mid level
temperatures. This should lead towards mostly sunny and mild day.
Decent mixing again on Tuesday with some gusts around 25 mph likely
during the day, especially along and north of Interstate 90.
Temperatures will rise to 80 to 85 in most locations.

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning a weak upper level wave will
ride across the Western High Plains into North Dakota. This will
bring an increase in low and mid level southwest flow which may
spark a few showers or thunderstorms. Right now it appears as though
ti will be very dry so mainly looking at the EML to do the work.
This should keep activity scattered at best and with only marginal
confidence will just have a small 20 pop in the mid James Valley.

Wednesday into Wednesday night a stronger and slightly farther south
wave will bring an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms.
The better chances will be on Wednesday night. Instability would
likely support a severe weather threat but at this time the shear
looks like it will not support longer updrafts.

Once this wave passes on Thursday morning upper level ridging
strengthens and the chances for rain and thunderstorms diminishes.
This should help usher in much warmer conditions along with
humidity. Highs Thursday into Sunday likely 85 to 95 in most
locations. Lows should be 65 to 75.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Showers have
gradually diminished/moved out of the region this evening.
However, isolated/spotty showers will be possible east of I-29
through early Monday morning.Light northwest to west winds will
dominate the region, with some gusts up to 20 knots possible
Monday afternoon.




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