Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 161041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
641 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Seasonal temperatures and humid conditions will persist over the
next few days while unsettled weather returns ahead of a front
drifting down from the Great Lakes. Drier weather is expected by the
end of the week.


630 AM Update...No sigfnt changes needed to the going fcst. Temps
and dewpoints are right in line with the nocturnal curve and precip
with tstms are is well west of the FA ahead of a cold front.

The upper level flow will remain nearly zonal with rising h5 heights
beginning later this evening thru the overnight. Not much in the way
of synoptic forcing as the best vertical motions will be associated
with sw/ly mech lift across the NC mtns on the periphery of an Atl
ridge. The models differ to whether or not the mlvl cap will be
broken outside the mtns...but for now it looks like subs will be too
strong for much of a deep convec threat...altho a couple cells may
make form associated with higher diff heating.

Across the NC looks like the cap will be broken by 20z and
a good amt of sbCAPE will be realized leading to stg and possibly a
couple svr tstms during the later afternoon. Deep layered shear
remains rather weak...but a few pulse-type or clustered storms could
produce large hail as well as pretty stg outflows. The atmos returns
to a more normal summertime feel as sfc td/s rise into the m60s and
temps reach the u80s over the non/mtns and m80s across the mtn
valleys. Overnight...there could be some lingering -shra/tstms
activity as elCAPE remains arnd 500 J/kg. This activity should
weaken and dissipate thru the early morning hrs. With debris cloudiness
and upper cloud cover increasing...mins will be held a cat or so abv
normal levels.


As of 244 AM EDT Sunday: The new week looks like a return to typical
late spring/early summer weather. For those readers keeping track
of such things...we have not yet locked in our typical pulse-severe
regime this season...but it looks like we might just do that in
the coming week. We should have enough moisture and instability
on the south side of a quasi-stationary front to fuel thunderstorm
development each day. The mtns are favored on Monday. The approach
of a short wave on Tuesday suggests more coverage and the fcst will
feature precip probability above climo. Expect a diurnal peak both
days, but we may retain some overnight shower/thunderstorm activity,
especially Tuesday night as the short wave passes. Whether or
not we have a serious shot at severe storms is uncertain right
now, but considering the climatology, we should probably expect
improving chances. Temps will be about a category above normal.


As of 330 am EDT Sunday: Not really much in the latest guidance
to suggest any course corrections. Expect our unsettled weather
to continue through the medium range with diurnally enhanced
thunderstorm chances Wednesday and Thursday. The most interesting
day might be Thursday because of a fairly strong short wave moving
across the Midwest/OH Valley region, which brings an upper trof axis
across the fcst area Thursday night/Friday morning. The increase
in forcing should keep precip chances high overnight. Might get a
brief break in the action Friday, but yet another disturbance is
shown moving along in the relatively fast flow aloft that would
affect our area on Saturday. Still hard to say if any of this
will come in the form of an organized MCS, but it is certainly
possible. Temps will be fairly close to normal through the period,
probably within a category above.


At KCLT and elsewhere: No flight restrictions thru the TAF period as
Atl hipres continues to dominate the pattern at the low levels.
Afternoon Cu will develop fairly early on and become shunted
underneath a stg inversion arnd 9 Kft. Good elevated instability
will be cant rule out isol towers of convection...however
the NC mtns will be favored for sct tstm activity thru the
afternoon/evening. Overall coverage doesn/t look high enuf for
prevailing TS at KAVL...yet will include a VCTS. The BL becomes
mixed within relatively weak sw/ly flow...however mixing shud be
enuf to create low-end gusts across most terminals aft 15z thru the

Outlook: Continued afternoon convection with possible flight
restrictions, mainly across the higher terrain, is possible Monday
thru the middle of the week.

Confidence Table...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  87%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:




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