Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 221528
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1128 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot, humid and breezy conditions can be expected through early
evening with heat indices reaching above 100 degrees this
afternoon. A cold front Tuesday will bring a chance of strong
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, followed by cooler
air beginning Wednesday. Temperatures slightly below normal and
overall dry conditions will prevail mid-week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 600 AM Monday...Another hot and humid day across the
Coastal Carolinas, but relief is in site beginning Tuesday.

Will begin to lose the thermal ridge with h5 heights just
beginning to descend, but not enough to make much of difference.
Winds through the low levels will not have a great westerly
downslope component so do not think we will push our temps to
near records, but overall, will go with persistence for today
and continued hot and humid conditions. Gusty SW winds will
reach up to 20 to 25 mph as pressure gradient tightens with
approach of cold front, and especially along the coast where sea
breeze will add to it.

As far as a heat advisory, conditions look most favorable where
the greatest dewpoints will be drawn inland with sea breeze,
meeting up with hot temps, mainly just inland of the coast.
Farther inland, I-95 corridor and west, the dewpoints look like
they will decrease enough this afternoon as heat rises to allow
for heat indices between 100 and 105. Also, should clouds
increasing across inland areas to dampen the sunshine. Therefore
will go with heat advisory for eastern portion of forecast area
north of Georgetown county. May need to adjust later on.

Breezy and mild conditions will continue into Monday night
with low temps continuing above normal, in the mid 70s to near
80 closer to the coast.

Moisture will be on the rise through late today. Included
potential for Iso convection along sea breeze this aftn, but may
be too dry still. Overall, expect convection to be focuses
along inland trough later this afternoon into this evening. Once
heating cuts off, expect convection to come to an end
tonight.

Clouds, showers and thunderstorms will be on the rise on
Tuesday as deepening mid to upper trough pushes cold front
through the Carolinas. SPC has local area outlined in marginal
risk, especially in areas with greatest sunshine through early
Tues adding to an already moist and unstable column. Precip
water values increase up around 2 inches Tues with low level
winds increase up to 20 to 30 kts. Decent mid to upper level
support with decent shear should support stronger to severe
storms with main threat of damaging winds Tues aftn into Tues
eve. Storms should move quickly so should see quicker bursts of
torrential rain in shwrs/tstms. High temps in the upr 80s to
near 90,

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...A rather strong cold front will be making
its way across the area Tuesday evening through Wednesday
morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing but the
thunder and or severe threat will probably be on the way down at
the beginning of the period. A leading convective line, at
least according to some of the higher resolution guidance will
most likely have the severe threat. SPC has all of the area in a
Marginal Risk for day two. Some residual rain showers will
linger into Wednesday but amounts will be light. The cooler air
will be firmly in place Wednesday with highs only in the lower
80s (some guidance is lower) and lows Thursday morning in the
middle to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Expecting a relatively quiet extended
period as the mid level trough fills and or moves off to the
northeast. This will leave surface high pressure, centered in
the Appalachian in control mush of the period. There may be a
few showers develop along the sea breeze along coastal areas but
those will be limited. Its also possible land breeze showers
could develop in the sweet spot where the winds relax but
residual cooler temperatures remain on land. This probably would
be Saturday or Sunday morning. Cooler temperatures will recover
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 12z...VFR conditions to dominate TAF period. Clear skies
this morning before diurnal cumulus develops. Scattered storms
may develop along sea breeze boundary this afternoon. A
scattered to broken high cloud deck will move in after sunset
tonight. There is a chance for MVFR low clouds to move into
coastal terminals towards end of TAF period, around 6-9z, but
confidence too low to include in TAFs for now. May also see some
light scattered showers early tomorrow morning along the coast.
South-southwest winds throughout TAF period, with strong gusts
this afternoon in the high teens in inland areas and around
20kts along the coast. Winds remain elevated overnight around
10kts.

Extended Outlook...Better chances of flight restrictions Tue
into early Wed as a front moves into and through the area with
showers/tstms likely. Improving conditions are expected for the
second half of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1128 AM Monday...Sunset Near Shore buoy 41024, reporting
gusts above 20 kt this morning, a good signal winds will rise
further, in stronger land heating, and a slight tightening of
the PMSL contours over the 0-20nm, as interaction of Bermuda
High and approaching frontal system gears up. Seas may build
near 5 ft very outer waters, or S of Brunswick coast, but
majority of marine areas, a bumpy 3-4 ft with dominant periods
of 4-5 seconds. Any TSTMs through afternoon will be confined to
the west Gulf Stream wall eastward, as subsidence closer to
shore will be strong due to the land heat.

As of 905 AM Monday...SI.Y Flag raised in gusty SW winds today,
SSW inshore during the afternoon, frequently gusting to 25 kt
late, through tonight. Seas 3-5 feet highest offshore and south
of Cape Fear. Sustain speeds mainly between 15-20 kt during the
afternoon, but gusts higher should become common over a sizable
portion of the waters after 4 pm.

As of 300 AM Monday...Gradient will tighten as cold front
approaches and moves through the Carolinas, reaching into the
Coastal Carolinas late Tues. This will produce gusty S-SW winds
today through Tues. Seas will reach up to 3 to 5 ft, but should
remain below SCA thresholds into Tues. Expect  gusts up to 25
kt with seas 3 to 4 ft most waters.

Southwest winds will be in place initially but only for a
few hours as a cold front moves across by Wednesday morning. The
wind direction will then make the usual progression of west to
north finally settling at northeast. Speeds during the transition
will be rather light with the highest values with the southwest flow
initially. A northeast flow of 10-15 knots with embedded higher
surges will be in place most of the remainder of the period.
Significant seas will be in a range of 2-4 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-058-059.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ096-099-
     105>110.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for winds from 4 PM this afternoon to 6
     AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...8
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...RGZ/SHK/8


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