Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 250139
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
939 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate through Thursday with warm, dry and
breezy conditions. An approaching front will bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. High
pressure returns for the weekend. Another cold front crosses
the region late Sunday, although rainfall chances with this
front appear to be low. Seasonable weather will return early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 938 PM Wednesday...Minimal change to the forecast grids
this update. Ridge of high pressure aloft will continue to bring
warm and dry conditions through Thursday...with both low and
high temps around 10 degrees above normal for some locales.

Overall less cirrus expected tonight compared to last, although
SW winds are not expected to fully decouple which will limit
radiational cooling potential. Breezy conditions will return
Thursday afternoon up to around 20 mph...strongest within the
sea breeze near coast. Mid and high level cloudiness expected to
increase by second half of day tomorrow in advance of frontal
system/troughing at all levels of the atmosphere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Wednesday...An approaching cold front will bring
chances for showers starting along the I-95 corridor and moving
eastward Thursday night into Friday. As advancing front couples
with instability aloft, showers and thunderstorms will develop
Friday afternoon and evening with occasional moderate downpours.
Strongest storms could produce some strong wind gusts at times.
Front will push through the region by late Friday night and
move offshore for the weekend. Afternoon temperatures will be a
bit cooler than the previous several days, with afternoon highs
closer to normal in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Wednesday...High pressure returns for the weekend
and brings dry weather and near normal to slightly above normal
temperatures. A weak cold front expected to move through the
region Sunday evening and could bring some increasing winds, but
latest model trends are not having much precipitation with the
front.

Outlook for the middle of next week looks like warming
temperatures and scattered showers possible.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 0Z....VFR continues to prevail. Mostly clear skies majority of
TAF period, with scattered mid-level clouds moving in from the west
as low pressure system approaches the area. Unfavorable
conditions for fog this period and so no visibility restrictions
expected. Southwest winds will dominate through tomorrow,
around 5kts overnight increasing to 10kts sustained and gusts
approaching 20kts tomorrow afternoon.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions to persist. Could see MVFR on Fri
as low pressure crosses the Carolinas.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 938 PM Wednesday...Moderate SSW to SW winds will continue
for the next few hours before diminishing into Thursday morning
to around 10kts. SW trending SSW winds will then increase to
around 15kts through tomorrow afternoon. Seas will continue 2 to
4 ft. in a mix of short period local windsea and SE/ESE swell.

A cold front passing through the region Friday/Friday evening
is expected to bring Small Craft Advisory level winds and seas
to the area along with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Noted
latest GFS now showing a period of 25-30kt winds SW shifting
WNW winds and 7-9ft seas over parts of the marine area Fri
afternoon/evening. Will coordinate with tonight`s forecast crew
on potential headlines as appropriate.

High pressure returns for Saturday along with improving marine
conditions. Watching for deteriorating marine conditions later
Sunday into Monday as next front impacts area. Details uncertain
at this time though given some fairly wholesale differences
amongst the major models. No significant concerns yet for early
to middle of next week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MCK/MCW
NEAR TERM...MCK/MCW
SHORT TERM...MCK
LONG TERM...MCK
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...MCK/MCW


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