Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS61 KILN 181914

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
314 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

High pressure will provide dry weather today and tonight,
before another area of low pressure brings precipitation to the
region Monday afternoon into Wednesday.


The region will remain dry tonight as high pressure ridge
begins to loosening its grip. High clouds will start to affect
the region this evening. As a low pressure system develops in
the plains tonight, H8 moisture begins to pool in Kentucky.
Therefore more cloud coverage is expected in the far south as
compared to the nrn half.

Lows will be warmer tonight, ranging from the lower 30s in the
north to the mid to upper 30s south.


12Z run of the models have trended a little slower and farther
south with the ejecting low and its precipitation. Therefore
backed way off on PoPs for Monday. Dried out almost the entire
fa, except for a slight chance in the Kentucky counties south of
CVG. Highs will generally range from the upper 40s in the
extreme north counties to the mid to upper 50s in the south.

Monday night the H5 s/w ejects out through Kentucky, pushing a
surface low through the TN valley. Precipitation will push into
the southern half of the fa during the evening, then over the
rest by morning. Precipitation starts as rain, but after 06Z
surface temperatures in the north begin to drop to around or
below freezing, as critical thicknesses drop. This will produce
another round of wintry mix. The south will be a
rain/sleet/freezing rain mix, while the north will be more of a
snow/freezing rain mix. Accumulations of either snow or freezing
rain will be very light.


There will be a chance for a light mix of precipitation at the
start of the long term Tuesday morning, however confidence is
not high in precipitation type Tuesday morning. As temperature
profiles warm, expect precipitation to change over to all rain
during the day on Tuesday.

Tuesday night an area of low pressure is expected to be
situated just southeast of the forecast area. This area of low
pressure has trended further north, increasing not only snowfall
chances, but accumulations with snowfall as well. Cooler air
will be brought into the region Tuesday night and expect
precipitation to change over to all snow. With snowfall falling
during the overnight hours Tuesday night there is a greater
potential for snowfall to accumulate. Have over an inch of snow
across most of the region with a large portion of the region
expecting at least 2 to 3 inches of snow. There is the potential
for some banding of snow so cannot rule out a swatch of larger
values in excess of 4 inches for the entire event which will
continue through the day on Wednesday and into Wednesday evening
before tapering off. There are still some model discrepancies
in the details of the system and therefore decided to stay away
from some of the larger 4 inch values for now until there is
more model run to run consistency.

After this time dry conditions are expected for Thursday into
Friday before another system brings a mix of rain and snow to
the region for the weekend.


High pressure ridge will gradually weaken overnight in response
to low pressure developing in the plains. High clouds will
begin to filter in after 00Z. In response to the developing sfc
low, H8 moisture will begin to pool in Kentucky. Expect a VFR
cig around 4-5kft to drift into CVG between 06Z-12Z.

The H8 moisture will buckle around 12Z, and the H8 ceilings
pull back from CVG, leaving a broken cirrus deck to affect the
tafs for the later part of the period.

The 4-5kft ceilings should work back into CVG at the end of the
30 hr taf.

Winds will be light and variable tonight, but will then
gradually increase on Monday. Could see some gusts into the
upper 20s for Monday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are possible from
Tuesday through Wednesday.




AVIATION...Sites is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.