Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 182254

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
654 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Periods of rain will continue through early Saturday morning.
An additional 1 to 2 inches will be possible, especially along and
east of Interstate 69 with rainfall amounts quickly tapering off
as you move northwest. Conditions are expected to dry out
Saturday night into the second half of the weekend. Highs will
struggle through the 40s on Friday with windy conditions making it
feel even worse. However,warmer weather begins to arrive Sunday
and into next week, but more rain chances loom through mid week.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Cold front was depicted nicely on radar and obs from Sturgis to
Grissom ARB working east. Precip has been more showery in nature
either side of this feature with more of the expected uptick in
precip noted upstream. Axis of heaviest precip, at least into Fri
AM looks to be SE third to half of the area with front likely to
stall out just SE of the forecast area. Total rainfall amounts
will generally be one half to one inch just through Fri Afternoon
with lesser amounts going NW. This will allow for continued river
responses as well as increase in standing water in fields and low
areas, but still doesn`t look to rise to the need for any sort of
Flood Watch. However, final rain amounts through tomorrow will
play a big role in future potential for headlines outside of
specific river based.

Falling temperatures will take place behind the front with not a
lot of recovery Friday given the extensive clouds, cold N to NW
flow and periods of rain. Highs won`t make it out of the 40s.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Active pattern will continue through the long term with at least 1
plus factor being the area should generally see near or above
normal temps through the period.

Closed upper low will continue to deepen and cut off across
Kentucky (models continue to vary exactly where but at least
center somewhere in central/eastern KY by 12Z Sat. Fri night into
Saturday will be the next focus for heavy precipitation as
deformation zone rotates back west and north into the forecast
area. Trends still leaning towards more impact across at least the
SE half or so of the area where potential would exist for yet
another half inch to inch of rain, bringing some areas to well
over 2 inches. As mentioned in short term, no headlines beyond
any river forecast point based products but something to watch.

Easter Sunday looking dry and rather nice with highs into the 60s
and maybe even some 70s as closed low finally heads for the east
coast and upper level ridging takes over. Weak disturbance tries
to move towards the area by Mon/Mon Ngt to bring a chance for some
showers. Models begin to diverge rather dramatically after this
with SW upper low and trough ejecting (GFS) vs remaining over the
SW with a weaker trough over the Great Lakes. Result will be an
extended period of slgt chc to chc pops due to all the blending of
the models with temps into the 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 654 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

Stalling frontal zone and increased deformation on the northwest
side of low pressure organizing into the Lower OH Valley will keep
a steady light to moderate rain in place through at least midday
Friday at KFWA. This rain axis should mainly remain just east-
southeast of KSBN tonight, though some drizzle/light rain possible
at times. Better chances here tomorrow morning as deformation rain
possibly backs northwest into the area. Winds will pick up out of
the north tonight into Friday otherwise, with cigs likely bouncing
around between IFR and MVFR.


LM...Gale Warning from 2 AM to 9 PM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046.



LONG TERM...Fisher

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