Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 240830
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
430 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 405 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Showers and thunderstorms are likely, mainly this afternoon. Isolated
severe storms are possible with hail, damaging winds and locally
heavy rainfall the primary hazards. It will dry out tonight and
Tuesday. Warmer and more humid air is expected for mid to late
week but this will also bring low chances for thunderstorms at
times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 405 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Complicated setup for today with respect to shra/tsra development
and severe weather. Area of shra has moved out of the northeast
early this morning and subsidence in wake of associated short
wave has kept pcpn from redeveloping so far this morning.
Stronger, negatively tilted short wave will move northeast later
today and chances for storms will increase ahead of this feature
and surface front. Shear is not an issue today with 0-3km values
30-35 knots and deeper 0-6km shear closer to 40-45 kts. The issue
will be instability as satellite shows abundant cloud cover this
morning and likely lingering through the day. Models not overly
impressive with CAPE today but given sfc dewpoints in the upper
60s it likely will not take much heating to increase the
instability. CAMs not overly impressive with development today but
expect an area of shra/tsra to develop late morning/early
afternoon and spread northeast. Isolated SVR is possible if any
stronger updrafts can develop. Next focus will be along main
frontal boundary late afternoon and evening. However, will not
have much time to destabilize behind first round of pcpn. SPC
has upgraded area from marginal to slight risk but this remains
conditional on the instability.

Pcpn chances should diminish tonight behind weak cold front as
slightly drier air works into the area.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

First significant summer ridge to try and build through the mid
section of the CONUS during this period. Unfortunately this looks
to be a dirty ridge with numerous ridge rider short waves making a
run at our area which will lie on the eastern fringes. Have seen
several shifts in models with strength and location of this ridge
so confidence remains low with how warm we will get and timing of
any convection other than during peak heating. Long term national
blend remains peppered with low chance pops given the multitude
of short waves and warm, moist atmosphere in place. This will have
to be refined over time as we see how deep the eastern trough
becomes and where ridge axis ends up along with short wave timing.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 137 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Area of rain will be exiting KFWA over the next hour or 2 with dry
conditions expected to dominate through at least 17Z Mon.
Overnight challenge will remain how low cigs and vsby will drop as
rainfall from the past evening and moist boundary layer likely
setup a decent stratus deck overnight. Kept previous forecast
generally intact with MVFR conditions into the daylight hours of
Monday. Additional chances for showers and storms may creep back
in after 17Z into the afternoon, but confidence in exactly where
this will occur is low. Have introduced VCSH to cover the threat
for now, but could see need to add predominate SHRA or even a
period of TSRA especially at KFWA where signals appear somewhat
stronger for convection to develop ahead of a cold front.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lashley
SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley
AVIATION...Fisher


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