Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 260553
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
153 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 153 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2019

Updated the forecast to input the latest obs and trend them
through the overnight hours. For the most part, the forecast
remains on track with ample pops in place handling the heavy
showers and few thunderstorms moving through.

UPDATE Issued at 1011 PM EDT THU APR 25 2019

A line of convection has developed and currently runs from around
Winchester to Whitley City. It is moving NNE and will cross the
northern and western portions of the forecast area late this
evening, and has been accounted for in the forecast. In the
general picture, the forecast is still on track, and evening obs
for temps, dew points, and winds have been blended into the
night`s forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 847 PM EDT THU APR 25 2019

Precip is a bit slow to develop into eastern KY, but it`s finally
picking up over the central part of the state and will eventually
make its way here. Have backed off on the timing of the increase
in POP this evening, following the idea of the NAM and HRRR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 403 PM EDT THU APR 25 2019

Eastern Kentucky is currently wedged between a warm front to our
north and an incoming cold front to our west, with an area of
surface low pressure currently moving NE through Indiana. This
position is a bit farther north than originally anticipated, which
has so far kept any associated precip out of eastern Kentucky
despite decent SW flow. However, as the cold front continues to near
the CWA throughout the late afternoon and evening, expect pops to
begin increasing. The cold front is expected to move through during
the overnight, with widespread showers and a potential rumble of
thunder. There is not enough instability with this system to warrant
anything greater than a few strikes of lightning and some breezy
winds. Abundant cloud cover and precip will keep temperatures mild
across eastern Kentucky, with lows generally in the upper 50s.

The cold front will exit by Friday morning, with winds becoming more
NWrly and gusty behind the frontal passage. Mainly showers will
continue throughout the morning before the precip exits to the east
during the afternoon and skies quickly clear behind. The influx of
colder air will only allow temperatures to reach the low 60s for
highs. High pressure will then settle in for Friday night, with
clear skies and winds diminishing. Expect a decent drop in
temperatures, with a ridge/valley split. Highs will generally be in
the low 40s, though some locations could see upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT THU APR 25 2019

The models are in good agreement with generally a zonal and
progressive long wave pattern to rule across the CONUS through
early next week. Some modest amplification then occurs through the
middle of next week. Have stuck close to a blended model
solution, as smaller scale details become lower confidence as we
get further out in time.

For this weekend, surface low pressure will dampen as it moves
east across the Ohio Valley. This system will threaten the area
with a few showers late Saturday through Sunday morning. A brief
stint of drier weather can be expected Sunday afternoon through
Monday morning. A frontal boundary will then align near, or just
to our north into next week. Dew points will be on the rise
through the period. Daily chances of convection will gradually
increase each day, initially along the I-64 corridor, but then
meandering a bit further south with time, as capping weakens
across our area.

Temperatures will start out near normal for this time of year, but
above normal readings will return into next week, as higher 500 mb
heights move in across our region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2019

For the most part across the area, VFR conditions are still in
place as showers continue to pass through eastern Kentucky. With
this, conditions are forecast to deteriorate to MVFR generally
from west to east through 10Z, although some localized incursions
into sub-VFR categories may occur in showers before then.
Localized IFR will also be possible at times towards dawn.
Showers will taper off from west to east during the day Friday,
and along with this will come an improvement to VFR conditions.

Winds will pick up and shift from the southwest to the west
northwest with the passage of a cold front overnight and on Friday
morning. Gusts of 20-30 kts are expected, especially during the
day Friday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER/HAL



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