Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 212318 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
618 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

H5 analysis from this morning had an amplified pattern
across the CONUS. Closed low pressure was noted over southwestern
Pennsylvania with a trough of low pressure extending south to the
Bahamas. East of this feature, high pressure was located north
northeast of Bermuda with a ridge extending north into Newfoundland.
West of the wrn PA low, low amplitude ridging extended from the
Ozarks north to the upper Mississippi Valley. West of this ridge, a
broad area of low pressure was present across the western CONUS. A
shortwave was noted over central Nevada with a second shortwave
noted over NE Colorado. The NE colorado shortwave, in combination
with a cold front, touched off showers and thunderstorms earlier
today in the eastern Nebraska Panhandle and western Sandhills. This
activity has continued into the afternoon hours. At the surface: Low
pressure was noted over northwestern Kansas, just west of Hill City.
A stationary front extended northeast of the low into south central,
then central and northeastern Nebraska, just east of O`Neill. West
of the low, the front extended to the west northwest into
northeastern Colorado. Behind the front, temperatures ranged from the
upper 40s in northwestern Nebraska to around 70 at Imperial and
Broken Bow. South and east of the front, temperatures were in the
lower to middle 80s in south central and southeastern Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

In the near term, precipitation and thunderstorm chances will be
the main forecast challenge. The shortwave trough, currently over
nern Colorado, will eject slowly to the east northeast tonight.
Two areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop.
The first area will be INVOF the surface front which will be
located from northwestern Kansas into south central and
northeastern Nebraska. The high res models including the HRRR and
4KM NAM develop convection along the front in northwestern Kansas
and south central Nebraska around 00z, lifting this along the
front into the evening hours. That being said, with the front
expected to be just off to the southeast of the forecast area this
evening, the severe threat should be just southeast of the
forecast area as well. Further north, more persistent and greater
coverage of showers will develop this evening INVOF the shortwave
trough and enhanced mid level warm air advection. The mid level
warm air advection is strongest over the central and northern cwa
tonight. That being said, will continue the highest pops in the
central and northern cwa tonight. Will limit pops to slight chance
and low end chance pops in the southwest. This area will be by-
passed by the best mid level forcing (north) and frontal forcing
(south). Precipitation will end from west to east across northern
Nebraska on Monday as the H5 shortwave traverses northern
Nebraska. Behind the exiting shortwave, dry conditions are
expected, however, plenty of mid level moisture, will lead to
mostly cloudy skies which will hold highs in the lower to middle
50s. High pressure will build into the forecast area Monday night,
leading to clearing skies and light winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

The midweek will start off dry
with the front draped across the southern plains and mid level
forcing extending from the desert sw east into central Texas. Highs
Tuesday will rebound to the 60s with 70s forecast for Wednesday. The
next chance for precipitation will arrive Wednesday night across the
northern half of the forecast area. A weak northern stream
disturbance will lift from the northern Rockies east into the
Dakotas and far northern Nebraska. This disturbance will force a
weak cold front into the forecast area Wednesday night into
Thursday. As this front is forced south, mid level lift is much
weaker, so dry conditions are anticipated across southern Nebraska.
Temperatures behind the front Thursday will be slightly cooler, with
highs ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. A warm front will
lift through the forecast area Friday, followed by a cold fropa
Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the
warm front Friday and Friday night. Moisture appears limited with
this fropa, so will limit pops to slight chance and low end chance
for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

The area of MVFR/IFR ceilings in scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across nwrn Nebraska move east tonight and exit
ncntl Nebraska Monday afternoon. VFR/areas of MVFR are expected
south of highway 2 tonight and Monday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC


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