Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 240653
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1153 PM PDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...23/712 PM.

Seasonably warm and dry conditions continue through the week
along with overnight and morning coastal low clouds and patchy
fog. Afternoon temperatures increase a bit next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...23/801 PM.

Weak upper level ridge of high pressure combined with weaker
onshore pressure gradients resulted in some very warm temperatures
today across far interior sections of the forecast area,
including highs in the mid 90s across the Antelope Valley and SLO
county interior valleys. A 1500 to 2000 foot marine layer depth
kept temperatures mild near the coast, with low clouds lingering
into the afternoon hours. Low clouds and fog expected to fill in
across most coastal/valley areas overnight into Monday morning.
And with slightly stronger onshore gradients expected on Monday
afternoon, looking for low clouds to linger across portions of the
immediate coast once again. Little change in temperatures
expected Monday.

Weak upper level trough will develop across California Tuesday
into Wednesday, bringing a gradual increase in onshore flow and
marine layer depth. As a result, look for a gradual cooling trend,
with a return of gusty onshore winds in the mountains and deserts.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...23/216 PM.

The mid week trough is expected to linger along the west coast
through the end of the week at least. Models still showing height
rises by the weekend along with an increase in northerly gradients
so there`s a chance for a modest warming trend. Until then a lot more
of the same. Marine layer clouds during the night and morning and
clearing to within a few miles of the coast each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...24/0652Z.

At 0545Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was near 2900 feet with a temperature of 23 C.

Low confidence in TAFs all coastal and vly TAFs have a chc of
ending up 1 flight cat lower than fcst. There is a 30 percent chc
that any site with afternoon clearing fcst will have MVFR bkn cigs
instead. Flight cat transitions could be off by as much as 2
hours.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of 1SM
OVC. Flight cat transitions may be off by 2 hours. Good
confidence in no east wind component greater than 4kt.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc 1/2SM
FG VV002 from 11Z-15Z. Flight cat transitions could be off by as
much as one hour.

&&

.MARINE...23/744 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in the current forecast.
Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) levels through at least Tuesday, then there is an
increasing chance of SCA level winds by Tuesday evening. SCA
level winds are likely Wednesday through Friday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in the
current forecast. Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels
through Tuesday, then there is a 50 percent chance of SCA level
winds each afternoon and evening between Wednesday and Friday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate-to-high
confidence in the current forecast. Winds and seas will remain
below SCA levels through Tuesday, then there is a 50% chance of
SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara
Channel each afternoon and evening between Wednesday and Friday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (WED-SUN).

No significant hazards expected.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Gomberg/MW
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Sweet/Gomberg
SYNOPSIS...Kj

weather.gov/losangeles


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