Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 152349 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
649 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.AVIATION...

For the 00Z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast
period. Southerly winds should stay near or below 10 to 15 kts,
however some terminals could see gusts nearing 20 kts Sunday
afternoon. Cloud cover will increase through the forecast period,
with chances for rain also increasing. Showers and thunderstorms
are possible Sunday morning through the afternoon hours. Given the
isolated to scattered nature of the precipitation, have only
mentioned vicinity thunder at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday
Data from local radars indicate scattered mid level
returns across western and northern sections of the forecast
area. Temperatures across the forecast area are currently running
near normal values for mid June.

Conditions across portions of the southern Plains
are favorable for MCS development overnight.  CAM type
guidance indicates that some of this activity will approach
western sections of the forecast area late tonight. Forecasts will
continue to reflect this potential.

Unsettled conditions are expected for the rest of this period.
Shortwave energy now across southern Colorado will continue
eastward. A cold front to the northwest of the state will slowly
approach during this period. Moderately unstable conditions will
develop by late Sunday, and with increasingly available moisture,
convective development will become likely. Towards the end of the
period, smaller scale surface boundaries will act to focus
additional convective development. Will need to monitor the
potential for excessive rainfall, especially across western
sections late in the period.

LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday
Upper low pressure will be over southern Missouri and northern
Arkansas Monday night into Tuesday morning. This upper low moves
northeast Tuesday into the Ohio River Valley Tuesday night.
Wednesday through Saturday, expect mainly zonal flow. This will keep
weak systems moving through Arkansas.

A stationary front will be just north of Arkansas Monday night
through Thursday. Several impulses will move across this area and
keep rain chances over the region. Another cold front enters the
Plains Friday and heads east. Several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected through the period. Heavy rainfall will
be possible in the west. Seven day rainfall totals could top 4 to 6
inches. Temperatures will generally be below normal with warmer
temperatures late in the period approaching normal.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...CROSS/LW



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