Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 241637

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1237 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

A mainly dry weak cold front will drop south into the region
tonight and Thursday then dissipate. A stronger cold front will
move through late Friday, followed by high pressure for the


As of 1230 PM Wed...Just about every mdl now shows no precip
over nrn tier later today so removed mention...otherwise no

Prev disc...High clouds continue to move toward our area and
thin out with time. No major changes with this update. Pretty
quiet again today with temps just a few degrees warmer than
Tuesday. Most of the area should remain dry through late today.
The one exception is up over the far northeast (northern Outer
Banks, Albemarle sound, northern Washington, Tyrrell counties
where a backdoor front may produce an isolated storm after 20Z.
Our previous forecast have these areas highlighted and see no
reason to change. While most guidance keep this area dry,
including the higher resolution ARW and NMM and 3 KM NAM, a few
others such as the RGEM, 12 KM NAM, and GFS show spotty activity
in the areas just mentioned. See no reason to change the
previous thinking given this. Highs near 80 along the coast to
mid to upper 80s inland.


As of 3 AM Wed...The backdoor front mentioned above may linger
a shower or two into the evening again over the far northeast,
otherwise a mostly clear sky is expected again. Winds will be a
bit lighter tonight but with such a warm day today most
locations will hold in the 60s for overnight lows tonight.


As of 3 AM Wed...Showers and thunderstorm chances increase
ahead of a cold front Friday and Friday night, followed by drier
weather over the weekend and early next week.

Thursday...Weak low pressure and associated front will linger
just north of the area or near the Albemarle Sound Thursday as
upper ridging continues aloft. An isolated shower or storm will
be possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening across the
far northern sections, but expect bulk of area to remain dry as
best forcing remains to the north. Temps will be well above
normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s inland to upper 70s to
lower 80s coast, though easterly, onshore winds behind the
frontal boundary will likely keep temps across much of the
Albemarle-Pamlico Peninsula in the upper 70s to lower 80s as

Thursday night through Friday Night...A cold front and
associated mid-level shortwave will cross the area Friday and
Friday night. Precipitable water values increase to between 1.5
and 2 inches and based on good agreement in guidance increased
pops to likely Fri afternoon and evening. SB CAPE values
1000-1500 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear increasing to 35-45 kt,
support the threat of convection with some strong storms
possible during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures
will be cooler Friday with highs in the mid 70s to around 80.

Saturday through Tuesday...Axis of mid-level trough moves
offshore fairly quickly Saturday with generally dry and slightly
cooler conditions over the weekend. High pressure will be
centered over the area Saturday, then will slide offshore Sunday
into Tuesday while continuing to ridge into the region. Flow
aloft will generally be zonal with a few weak disturbances
moving through the area which may bring an isolated shower
mainly during the afternoon hours. The GFS continues to be an
outlier pushing another front through late Sunday with strong
high pressure building in early next week but have discounted
this solution, keeping conditions mainly dry this period. Highs
Sat expected in the low to mid 70s inland to mid to upper 60s
coast, then will warm a few degrees Sunday into early next week.
Have kept the warming trend into early next week but if the GFS
solution verifies, temps early next week likely to be much


Short Term /through Thu/...
As of 1230 PM Wed...High confidence in VFR through the TAF pd.
Weak front will stall N of taf sites tonight then lift N Thu.
Expect mainly patchy high clouds thru pd with poss some high
based Cu far N. Light SSW winds overnight and decent temp/dewpt
spread shld limit threat for any late night fog.

Long Term /Thursday night through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Pred VFR conditions expected through early
Friday. Given light winds, some patchy morning fog is possible
as well, but extent will be limited. Areas of sub-VFR
conditions will be possible Friday into Friday evening as a
cold front and associated mid-level shortwave produce scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms. High pressure builds into the
area Saturday and moves offshore Sunday with VFR conditions


Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 1230 PM Wed...Winds cont to diminish and have SCA for a
bit longer outer central wtrs for some lingering 6 foot seas.

Prev disc...SCA looks good for the Pamlico Sound with gusts the
past few hours around 25 kts over the central part of the
sound. Over the central waters seas have increased to 5 feet
with 6 footers and 25 kt gusts still expected through late
morning. By this afternoon winds will relax a bit but still will
be 10 to 20 kts over the south, with lighter southwest winds
across the north. Tonight winds back into the northeast over the
northern waters behind the front at less than 10 kts, remaining
southwest 10 to 15 knots central and southern waters.

The 6 foot seas shld subside in the aftn as winds diminish.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wed...SW winds around 10-20 kt expected south of the
boundary and E/NE around 5-10 kt north of the boundary,
becoming SW around 10-20 kt all waters by late Thursday. Seas
2-4 ft early Thursday build to 3-5 ft Thursday afternoon. SW
winds increase to around 15-25 kt Fri ahead of the next frontal
system that will cross the area Fri night, followed by a NW to N
surge around 15-25 kt late Fri night. High confidence in SCA
conditions developing Fri and possibly continuing into early
Sat. Some 6 ft seas could develop across the outer central
waters Thu night in the SW flow ahead of the front. The GFS
continues to show a much stronger N/NW surge behind the front
with the potential for gales. Seas likely to build to 4-8 ft
Fri, then diminishing to to 4-6 ft late Friday night and early
Sat. High pressure builds into the region Saturday and slides
offshore Sunday and Mon. N/NW winds diminish to 15 kt or less
Saturday afternoon, then becomes southerly Sunday and increases
to 10-20 kt Sunday afternoon. Seas continue to subside to 2-4 ft
by Saturday evening and 2-3 ft Sun.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152-


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