Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 170200
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure offshore with a weak trough of low pressure to the
west will continue through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
As of 10 PM Tue...As expected, iso storms have diminished with
loss of heating, with rest of the night expected to be dry. may
see some patchy fog develop inland, esp areas that received rain
today.

Prev discussion...As of 7 PM Tue...A couple lingering iso
thunderstorms acrs coastal plain should begin to weaken and
diminish over the next hour or two with loss of diurnal heating.
Rest of the night dry and precip free.

Prev discussion... As of 230 PM Tuesday...Convection beginning
to fire espcly nrn tier. Atms is quite unstable however shear is
weak so expect pulse type storms with threat of a few stronger
wind gusts. Mdls show convection rapidly diminishing this
evening and think shld be rain free by mid evening. Another
sultry night expected with lows in the low/mid 70s well inland
to 75 to 80 cst.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...Very little change expected Wed with
main story the heat with apparent temps again reaching 105 to
109 most spots from mid day on. Will issue another heat advry
for the entire area. Will again see wdly sct to sct convection
fire as atms becomes quite unstable. Much like today expect srn
cst to see little if any precip as sea breeze moves inland.
Highs mid/upr 90s inland with lower 90s beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 AM Tuesday...A typical summer surface pattern will
persist into early next this week with surface high pressure
over the western Atlantic and a trough of low pressure inland as
upper ridging persists across the southern US. This will result
in a southerly/southwesterly flow of hot and humid air across
Eastern North Carolina into early next week. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms should occur mainly in the
afternoon and evening hours each day with better coverage Thu
into Fri as the remnants of Barry move through the mid
Atlantic.

Wednesday...Hot and very humid weather is expected with a
mainly afternoon/evening diurnal convective regime. Eastern NC
will remain located between high pressure offshore and a weak
lee-side trough developing inland. 850 MB temps are forecast to
be AOA 20C which would support highs in the mid to upper 90s.
The combination of the heat and humidity will produce Heat Index
values around 105 degrees in the afternoon. The upper ridging
should tend to limit widespread convective development, so will
continue 20-30% PoPs as the models continue to depict precip.

Thursday and Friday...The remnants of TC Barry are progged to
become absorbed into mid-level westerlies as it lifts into the
Ohio River Valley Wednesday with the mid-level circulation
opening into a wave and pushing across the East Coast Thursday
with the weakening surface low lifting north of the area along a
front. Continued unstable conditions across the area with an
increase in moisture and better cyclonic flow Thu/Thu night and
deeper moisture into at least early Fri which should result in
a better chance for showers and storms across the area. Will
continue 40% PoPs both days. Continued hot and very humid with
highs in the low to mid 90s and Heat Index values around 105
degrees. Sultry lows mainly in the mid to upper 70s.

Saturday through Monday...Continued hot and very humid. Highs
in the mid 90s inland/low 90s coast with the potential for upper
90s inland Sat and Sunday as 850 temps are forecast in the low
20s C. Heat index values in excess of 105 degrees will be
possible over the weekend and around 105 degrees Mon. Scattered
mainly afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected. Lows
will continue in the sultry mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /Through Wednesday Morning/...
As of 7 PM Tuesday...Guidance is less aggressive with overnight
fog compared to last night, but patchy fog cannot be ruled out.
Any diurnal storms will weaken after around sunset this evening.
Less cvg of storms on Wed afternoon.

Long Term /Wednesday afternoon through Saturday/...
As of 320 AM Tuesday...Typical summertime pattern this period
with high pressure offshore and a trough of low pressure inland,
with mainly isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening
showers/thunderstorms Wed and scattered showers and storms Thu
and Fri. Patchy fog or stratus will be possible early each
morning, esp. in areas that receive rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Wed/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...Current conditions about as tranquil as
will see with winds mainly 10 kts or less and seas 1 to 2 ft.
Pres gradient will grad tighten overnight and Wed as high pres
conts off shore with a trough of low pres developing inland. SSW Winds
will increase to 10 to 15 kts tonight and 15 to 20 kts Wed. Seas
will build 2 to 3 ft tonight and expect some 4 foot seas outer
wtrs Wed aftn.

Long Term /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
As of 320 AM Tuesday...The pressure gradient will be tightening
mid through late week as the inland surface trough strengthens.
This will result in moderate SW flow 15-20 kt Wed night and
persisting into Fri night. This will cause seas to build from
3-4 ft Wed night to 3-5 ft later Thu thru Fri and Fri night.
Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions in gusts to 25 kt and
5-6 ft seas over the outer waters will be possible over the
southern and central marine zones Thu night into Fri night. The
latest NWPS and WW3 wave models were forecasting seas to 5 ft,
but just a slight increase in wind speeds would result in seas
reaching advisory criteria. Sat and Sun winds are forecast to
subside slightly to 10-20 kt with seas mainly 3-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RF/TL
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG/JME
AVIATION...SK/TL
MARINE...RF



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