Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 191347
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
947 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.UPDATE...

...Very Windy Today With Strong to Severe Storms Expected...

...Atlantic Boating Conditions Will Become Quite Hazardous...

Only minor tweaks in the timing with the forecast regarding
strong to severe squall line set to move across east central
Florida this afternoon and evening. The line, as of 930 am,
extends from just east of the Tallahassee area into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and is rapidly moving east. Latest hi-res guidance
is a bit behind to where the line is currently on radar, and
arrival time has been adjusted ahead by an hour or so. Current
forecast has the line crossing Lake county into northwestern
Volusia county between 1 and 4 PM, the Interstate 4 corridor
between 2 and 6 PM and between 4 and 9 PM south of the I-4
corridor. With the speed of the line there is a chance arrival
times could be even slightly earlier. The main hazard associated
with this line is still expected to be damaging wind gusts to 60
mph and torrential downpours. The threat for tornadoes and hail
is not zero but appears to be very low.

Preceding the squall line, it will be windy and very warm with
strong southerly winds of 25 to 30 mph with occasional gusts to 35
to 40 mph. With such strong lift in place scattered showers and a
few storms will remain possible out ahead of the squall line. Max
temps will reach the mid to upper 80s.


&&

.AVIATION...

Very strong southerly flow will produce winds of 20-25 kts today
with gusts of 30-35 kts. This will precede a line of strong to
severe storms rapidly moving across the areas this afternoon and
evening with gusts of 40 to 50 kts possible in the strong to
severe storms. IFR visibilities are also expected, but these
visibilities are expected to be only an hour or so in duration due
to the rapid movement of the line. After the squall line moves
through, a period of light to moderate rainfall can be expected
before chances gradually diminish from NW to SE overnight tonight.

&&

.MARINE...

Today-tonight (previous)...The wind/seas forecast remains pretty
much identical to what has been carried for a couple days now.
Strong SCA level winds/seas over the entire MAOR will elevate to
near-Gale conditions beyond 20NM, with frequent gusts to gale
force expected through early evening. Winds/seas will start to
wane as flow veers behind a band of strong-severe storms which
will cross the Atlantic at 45-55KT later today. All marine
interests should remain alert for storms approaching rapidly from
the west this afternoon/early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  56  75  49 /  90  30  10   0
MCO  86  59  76  52 /  90  30  10   0
MLB  90  60  79  52 /  90  50  10   0
VRB  90  60  78  51 /  80  60  10   0
LEE  84  56  75  52 /  90  20  20   0
SFB  87  56  76  51 /  90  30  10   0
ORL  85  59  76  54 /  90  30  10   0
FPR  90  61  79  50 /  80  60  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Volusia-
     Indian River-Inland Volusia-Martin-Northern Brevard-
     Northern Lake-Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern
     Brevard-Southern Lake-St. Lucie.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Saturday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line
     20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Combs/Volkmer/Smith/Rodriguez


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