Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 260057
AFDMLB

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
857 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Overnight...Light westerly flow will continue into late evening with
most locations decoupling and experiencing light to calm winds after
midnight. Dewpoints a little lower than last night will allow for a
pleasantly cool overnight with lows in the 50s inland and around 60
beaches. The present forecast is in good shape.

...prev disc...

Tonight-Thursday... Deep lyr troffing pattern over the ern CONUS
will be reinforced by a secondary shortwave pushing acrs the Great
Plains, resulting in a deep and persistent westerly flow acrs the FL
Peninsula. These winds will tap a dry/stable airmass over the
GOMex...RAP40 analysis shows H100-H70 mean RH values btwn 40-
50pct...H85-H50 values AOB 20pct...H85-H70 lapse rates AOB 4.0C/KM.

Model soundings indicate PWat values holding steady btwn 0.75"-1.00"
with a sharp subsidence inversion thru the H85-H70 lyr...consistent
with the nature of the upstream airmass. Fcst will remain dry. Good
radiational cooling tonight as light winds and clear skies allows
the airmass to decouple in the predawn hrs...min temps near the fcst
dewpoints in the U50s/L60s. Warm W/SW flow on Thu will combine with
the dry nature of the airmass to push max temps into the M/U80s
with min RH arnd 40pct.

Friday...
Showers and possibly some storms return to the forecast as a
progressive 500-mb shortwave is progged to move across the Gulf
Coast during the day Friday that will push a cold front through
the area late in the day into Friday night. Forecast soundings
show temperatures aloft quite cool at around -11 C with the
greatest instability during the afternoon and evening south of I-
4. The best lift is also forecast to be south of I-4, but the
overall limiting factor with this system is the amount of
available moisture. PWATs are forecast to max out around 1.5".
This should limit overall coverage, but any storm that does get
going has the potential for gusty winds due to some mid-level dry
air and small hail with the cool temperatures aloft.

Highs will be in the low 80s north and mid 80s southern areas where
less cloud cover is expected.  Went above guidance on highs
especially along the coast with a stout southwesterly breeze
preventing a sea breeze.

Drier air will begin to filter in north of I-4 late in the day on
Friday behind the front and continue to work its way down the
peninsula overnight Friday. Keeping shower chances into Friday
evening from the Cape to Lake Kissimmee southward and a slight
thunder chance for the Treasure Coast. Enough moisture sticks
around overnight Friday from Melbourne southward to keep a slight
chance of showers in the forecast.

Saturday-Wednesday...
The frontal passage Fri night will mainly bring drier air over
the weekend, so max temps won`t cool much and still be in the
lower-mid 80s. Rather strong (for late April) high pressure is
forecast to build along the eastern seaboard Mon-Tue, resulting
in a breezy easterly flow developing. Any shower chances along the
leading edge of this surge will be very low. Max temps early next
week will be in the upper 70s/near 80 along the coast and low-mid
80s interior. Min temps will be noticeably milder along the
coast, in the upper 60s and lower 70s, due to the persistent winds
off the ocean.

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 26/18Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 26/02Z...W/SW 8-12KTS. Btwn 26/02Z-26/05Z...bcmg
W/NW 3-5KTS. Btwn 26/12Z-26/15Z...bcmg W/SW 7-11KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Prevailing VFR all sites...thru 26/00Z lcl cigs btwn
FL035-050.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...Light to gentle S/SW breeze veering to W/NW by midnight as
the land breeze circulation dvlps. Seas 2-3FT nearshore and 3-4FT
offshore, mainly in a NE swell.

Thu-Thu Night...Loose pgrad as a weak front approaches from the
west. Light W/NW breeze at daybreak backing to a light to gentle
S/SE by early aftn as the seabreeze circulation dvlps, then
returning to the W/SW by midnight with the land breeze. Winds bcmg a
gentle to moderate breeze in the predawn hrs as the pgrad tightens
ahead of the front. Seas 2-3FT nearshore and 3-4FT offshore.

Friday...South to southwesterly winds around 10 kt can be expected
with 3-4 ft seas.  Winds will increase to around 15 kt in the
Volusia waters by late afternoon. Shower chances will increase
during the afternoon hours with a few thunderstorms expected.

Weekend-Mon...Generally good boating conditions are expected. A
frontal passage Fri night is forecast to produce a brief period of
northwest/north winds 10-15 knots then a weakening pressure
gradient is indicated on Sat. A reinforcing front is forecast to
slide off the eastern seaboard on Sun with high pressure building
in behind it. However, tightening of the pressure gradient is
shown holding off until Sun night or Monday. Seas mostly 2-3 feet
over the weekend, except up to 4 feet in the Gulf Stream Sat
morning. Northeast-east winds picking up to 15-20 knots Mon and
increasing seas to 3-5 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thu-Fri...A warm west-southwest wind flow will develop Thu ahead
of the next weather system moving through the southeast states,
then continue on Fri. Wind speeds will be 10 mph or less Thu and
10-15 mph Fri.  It will be dry Thu with min RH values 35-40%. A
short period of increased moisture on Fri is forecast with a
slight chance of lightning storms.

Sat-Mon...Drying behind a weak front moving through Fri night may
cause min RH values to dip to 30-35 percent Sat, but winds look
10 mph or less. Onshore winds are forecast to increase on Mon,
with speeds up to 15-20 mph. However, min RH values will rise to
around 40% inland and 50% along the coast.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

JP/DKW



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