Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 240800
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
400 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Today-Tonight...Dominant feature across the FL peninsula continues
to be a low/mid level ridge in the eastern Gulf. GOES derived PW
highlights an area of 1.2" just west of Tampa Bay which will pull
closer to the coast today. The high along with drier air will
continue to suppress widespread convection this afternoon, similar
to previous days. Light westerly flow will allow the east coast sea
breeze to develop and push quickly inland through the afternoon.
Only mentionable rain chances will be to the south across the
Treasure Coast/Lake Okeechobee as the strong sea breeze collides
with potential lake breeze boundaries, with additional development
towards the Space Coast as propagating outflow boundaries move
northward. Local models suggest any development this afternoon will
dissipate and move southward by sunset, yielding a mostly dry
evening.

Yet another day with above average high temps; low 90s along the
coast south of Cape Canaveral, mid 90s for the northern coast and
approaching the upper 90s across the interior and metro areas. Heat
index values will rise to 102 to 105F during peak heating. Record
highs will be out of reach today, with previous records ranging from
98 to 102. Min temps tomorrow morning in the low to mid 70s.

Tue-Thu...Upper ridge centered just upstream the peninsula will
gradually weaken in response to some impulses moving across the SE
CONUS through midweek. Some anticipated cooling of mid level
temps along with a slow increase in avbl moisture will lead to
improving rain/storm chances during the period with coverage
around 25-35 percent Tue increasing to SCT over most of the area
Wed. (H7) steering level winds out of the N-NW will make for a
tricky coverage forecast at midweek, and interior sections will
have better chcs of seeing diurnally based storms than the
immediate coast. Expect seasonal temperatures with highs in the
L-M90s and Lows in the L-M70s.

Extended...A more favorable environment will exist for
development of deep convection with avbl moisture climbing to
around 1.8 to 2.0 inches, and minimal inhibition to convection as
temps aloft average -7.5-8C @H5 and low to mid level winds veer
from light onshore to a Sly component. Rain chcs late week into
the weekend will be sct to numerous with diurnally timed SB
heating and boundary interactions primary factors in daily
convective development.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevail. MVFR visby possible through sunrise for
inland terminals. Sea breeze development this afternoon will turn
west winds easterly at all TAF sites by 18-20Z. SHRA/TSRA possible
from KMLB south along the sea breeze, but confidence too low to
include at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...West winds 5-10 knots will become east this afternoon as the
sea breeze develops. Seas 2-3 ft in northern zones, 1-2 ft south of
Sebastian Inlet. Isolated showers and storms possible this afternoon
along the adjacent Treasure Coast waters.

Tue-Thu...Winds and seas will remain favorable during the period
with seas 2 ft or less and winds generally 10 kt or less.

Extended...Late week features a continuation of favorable open
water conditions, with seas no greater than 2-3 ft offshore and
less than 2 ft near the coast. Winds and seas will be locally
higher near lightning storms into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  95  75  95  73 /  10   0  30  20
MCO  96  75  97  74 /  10   0  30  30
MLB  93  76  93  74 /  20   0  20  20
VRB  93  74  94  69 /  20  10  20  20
LEE  95  76  97  75 /   0   0  30  30
SFB  97  76  97  76 /  10   0  40  30
ORL  96  76  97  75 /  10   0  30  30
FPR  93  75  95  71 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM....Pendergrast



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