Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 230758

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
358 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 352 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2018

One last day of northwest flow aloft downstream of ridge from plains
to scntrl Canada. Sheared out shortwave will only produce a few mid
clouds as it remains very dry aloft. At the sfc, high pressure of
1045mb over northern Manitoba and Hudson Bay moves to James Bay by
the evening, resulting in strengthening northeast winds off Lk
Superior. Gradient northeast winds off partial ice on eastern Lk
Superior will keep temps for most of the northern U.P. in the low
30s at best while far inland west and scntrl could reach near 40
degrees. Could see some scattered stratocu clouds try to form
later today as area of low-level moisture currently over northern
Ontario advects toward Lk Superior. Models have been overemphasizing
the low-level moisture recently, but since the clouds are already
occurring this morning north of Lk Superior, forecast of some
clouds tonight may have some merit, especially with upslope
northeast winds and some moisture off Lk Superior. Mainly the
northwest and north central would see the clouds before they mix
out and/or slide toward northern MN later tonight.

Even with the potential for scattered low clouds tonight and some
high clouds moving in from southwest, well to north of system
bringing snow to southern MN toward Ohio Valley, went on lower end
of guidance that has performed better lately. So once again have
mins as low as single digits especially inland central and east.
Imagine the coldest temps will occur interior east where there is
less potential for any clouds.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 357 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2018

The mostly stagnant pattern slowly breaks down this weekend into
early next week as the Hudson Bay high gradually shifts east.
Precipitation will return the forecast later Mon into Tue night as
an upper trough moves to the central CONUS and shortwave energy
brings a surface low across the area. Should see plenty of support
for widespread precip, and thermal fields suggest that will fall as
rain for the most part. Amounts look somewhere from 0.25-0.50
inches. This shouldn`t be enough to cause any substantial hydro
concerns, but certainly will cause some rises to areas rivers when
combined with continued light snow melt in the days prior due to
above freezing temps and mostly sunny skies.

A more active pattern continues through the rest of the forecast
period, although no other significant precipitation events are shown
by models through next Fri.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 140 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2018

VFR conditions expected at each of the TAF sites. There may be a
few afternoon CU Friday; however, this will likely be around or
just above MVFR conditions. Overall impact is expected to be

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 352 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2018

Strong high pressure center over Hudson Bay will build toward James
Bay by this evening. Northeast winds less than 20 knots to start
today will increase to east to northeast winds 25 to 30 knots this
afternoon and evening, especially across western Lk Superior. These
stronger headwinds could affect any marine traffic departing
Duluth/Superior area as more ships are getting underway. Expect
winds to diminish to around 20 kts Saturday into Sunday. The
strongest winds on Sunday will be from the southeast over eastern
half of Lk Superior. Southeast winds to 25 kts will then occur early
next week, with the stronger winds again over the east half of Lk
Superior. Winds will diminish blo 20 kts by middle of next week.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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