Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 191117
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
617 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Area of concentrated rain on the plateau has been diminishing
the past few hours...with just a few sprinkles elsewhere at 08Z.
Surface obs and KOHX 88D show cold front has moved through the
northwest counties...and was located near a line from Springfield
to Waynesboro at 08Z. The front will continue moving east this
morning and should advance through the rest of Middle TN by early
afternoon. Many areas...especially the northwest half...will
experience their max temp this morning rather than this afternoon.

Large trof over the central U.S. will deepen today as a jet max
drops down the back side of the trof. Models agree on closing off
the upper level low today and moving it eastward near the AL/TN
border. This will increase upward motion this afternoon and
especially tonight...helping rain showers increase across the
area. A lightning strike or two is not out of the question but
chances were low enough that it was left out of the forecast.
Rains will start to diminish well after midnight tonight. Total
rainfall today and tonight should range from near 1.25 inches in
the northwest counties down to about 0.75 across the south and
east.

The upper lever closed low will move slowly northeast across
eastern TN/KY on Saturday. This will create a wide range of
weather across the midstate...with clearing in the west but lots
of clouds in the east where showers will linger into the
afternoon. The entire area will have gusty west and northwest
winds.

The upper low will depart the region by Sunday and a weak ridge
will build, so Sunday should be great with sunshine, light winds
and high temps rebounding into the 70s. Monday should be good,
too, though some clouds are possible as the weak ridge flattens.

A couple showers or storms are possible in the northwest on
Tuesday as a weak short wave passes by. Included a chance of rain
areawide on Wednesday as a weak trof and cold front move into the
area from the northwest. Models differ somewhat on the timing and
location of the next storm system late next week. Regardless, a
chance of rain stays in the forecast Thursday and Friday as the
general trend of an upper level trof moving eastward from the
Southern Plains should increase moisture and instability enough to
warrant POPs.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Cigs and vis have fallen to IFR over the last couple of hours as
we deal with the backside of this current weather system. No
improvement is expected until Saturday afternoon.

Winds will be gusty today with 20-25 kt northwesterly gusts this
afternoon and 25-30 kt gusts tonight from the same direction.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Vannozzi
AVIATION........Unger



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