Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 171124

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
624 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019




Fairly active pattern set to continue through most of the
week. Bermuda high holds through mid-week...and backside
flow will continue to spread plenty of moisture up into the
mid-south the next several days. Upper flow not especially
impressive but models have been consistent bringing several
shortwaves across. The first, and weakest, is expected later
today, with a stronger wave passing on Tue. Instability very
much being helped but diurnal affects, and while convection
possible seemingly anytime, showers/storms will be most
widespread afternoons/evenings really through Wed.

Wed night into Thu seems to be to winner this period for the
most organized dynamic setup. Decent upper trough/ shortwave
consistent on both GFS/EURO swings through Thu afternoon. While
main frontal boundary stays well north, there is a hint of a
shallow SFC/LL boundary that passes Thu late morning/afternoon,
but quickly washes out early Fri. Not only is instability
enhanced, shear also increases sharply as a more favorable jet
structure crosses. Could be some strong to severe storms, will
have to see how this evolves.

Behind the upper wave Fri night...ridging does build but GFS
amplitude not quite as tall as EURO. GFS actually trying to clip
our northeast with a complex it develops in the southern OH
valley. With a fairly large disagreement in models will only run
with small pops for now. Upper ridging hanging over the area
through the weekend will limit development somewhat but another
pretty good upper shortwave and shot of deeper moisture could
increase development once again to start to workweek.



Scattered storms will develop across Middle Tennessee this
afternoon, but chances of hitting a terminal are not high enough
and timing is not consistent enough to include a prevailing TSRA
group. Handled the storm chances with VCTS at this time. Storm
coverage should decrease after loss of daytime heating, but some
activity is possible overnight. Cigs will be VFR for the taf
period. Vis could be reduced if a TS impacts a terminal. Winds
will increase out of the S/SW by mid morning between 5-10 kts and
calm below 5 kts again after 18/00z.





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