Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 170121
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
921 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A quasi-stationary frontal boundary will remain in place across the
northern Mid-Atlantic through much of the upcoming work week.
Several waves of low pressure are expected to develop along this
boundary and pass across the region leading to several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms through late this week. A stronger system
and frontal boundary will pass through the region late Thursday into
early Friday resulting in quieter weather in its wake.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The showers and thunderstorms that fired up over Lancaster and
York counties this afternoon are now off the coast. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms finally initiated across the
Baltimore area a short time ago and are now moving across the
Delmarva into southern NJ. The line of showers running from
Scranton to Pittsburgh are in closer proximity to the front
itself, but are slowly decaying. The larger area of showers and
thunderstorms across the lower Ohio Valley are not modeled to
make it here.

For the evening update, I took out the severe threat mention
and took out the likely PoPs. For the remainder of the
overnight, chance or slight chance PoPs remain.

With winds going light, fog is more likely overnight where it
rains.

Previous discussion...
We still haven`t seen much redevelopment with what remains of the
earlier MCS now over northern VA/central MD. That will be key to
potential for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The front
has inched ever so slowly south, and is now across northern PA, but
still north and west of our region.

Of note, most high res guidance has had a warm bias over the last
several hours. Additionally, conditions further west don`t look much
different than in our area. However, we do still have a few hours
left of diurnal heating which could mean that by the time the trough
reaches our area, there will be more opportunity for showers and
thunderstorms to develop. Therefore, I`m not ready to write off the
potential yet this afternoon and evening.

If we see convective initiation, there remains a risk for severe
storms, primarily for damaging winds. Instability is limited
(especially if this trend continues with guidance being too warm),
but it may be sufficient enough with bulk shear values of 20 to 30
kt to result in limited coverage of severe storms.

Overnight, the front is expected to continue to slip south into our
region. As it does so, fog may develop, especially in the vicinity
of the front. However, where exactly this front will end up by
morning is still quite uncertain. Some models have it almost
entirely south of Delaware by morning, though the majority of
guidance appears to keep it near ILG and PHL. Given the progression
we`ve seen so far today, I`m inclined to believe the further north
solution will be correct.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Another short wave trough will be riding along the front (which
should once again be stalled). There is some uncertainty with how
much instability we will have if we see as persistent low clouds and
fog as what has occurred today in the vicinity of the front in NY
(and as mentioned above, where this front will stall is still very
uncertain). None the less, at this point it looks like another round
of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mostly late afternoon
through the evening.

As for the risk of severe storms, the main threat will be south of
the front, and will be mostly a wind and hail threat. Shear may be
more limited tomorrow than today, especially south of the front
where the highest instability will be.

The main threat tomorrow however, looks like it will be a heavy rain
and flooding threat. Along and south of the front, there could be
several risk factors, including very high precipitable water values
(above 2 inches) and a very deep warm cloud layer. There is
potential, especially Monday evening, for training storms, since the
mid and upper level flow will be almost parallel to the front. Held
off on issuing a flash flood watch at this time given the
uncertainty with where the front will be, and thus where the threat
area will be. If the front stalls near ILG, then the main threat
area will be over northern Delmarva and far southern NJ (Salem,
Cumberland, Atlantic, and Cape May).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Summary: Long term forecast was updated using the latest national
blended guidance. No significant changes were made to the previously
issued long term forecast. The medium range continues to look quite
unsettled, with chances of strong convection and heavy rain multiple
times through late Thursday. A stronger system and frontal boundary
will clear the area by early Friday leading to at least a brief lull
in the active and wet week ahead.

Global guidance indicates much of the eastern CONUS will remain in
quasi-zonal upper to mid-level flow through late Thursday with
numerous shortwave troughs and perturbations propagating through the
flow during that time. At the surface, a quasi-stationary
frontal boundary will remain in place across the region
generally near the northern part of the forecast area. This
pattern will result in a few rounds of showers and storms
through late Thursday. As typical with this type of pattern,
global scale guidance does not handle the details of convective
evolution of timing very well, neither do mesoscale model beyond
about 24-36 hours. Therefore the timing, evolution, and
strength of showers and storms remains uncertain through much of
the long term at this time. That being said, a few rounds of
convection during this time may bring the potential for strong
to severe thunderstorm and/or flash flooding. The details on the
evolution of the convection will be better resolved in the
short/near term (24-48 hours) time period. By early Friday, a
stronger system looks to push through the region ahead of a
higher amplitude medium wave trough. This will bring an end to
the active period we have ahead of us this week. Some chances
for showers and/or storms appear to return into the weekend.

As previously mentioned, most of the area will be in the vicinity of
a weak frontal boundary with southerly to westerly flow along and
south of it. This will result in dewpoints in the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees and temps roughly within a few degrees of normal.
Persistent, although intermittent, cloud cover will moderate temps
such that night time lows will be relatively warm (mostly upper
60s) and daytime highs relatively cool (mostly low 80s)
compared to climatological normals. Honestly not too bad
considering the time of year!

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of this afternoon...Mostly VFR conditions should continue.
However, there remains a chance for showers and thunderstorms. The
highest risk of TSRA is mostly from KRDG and KPNE southward.
Southwesterly winds 10 to 15 kt should continue through the
afternoon, though gusty and erratic winds are possible in the
vicinity of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Tonight...Chances for storms continue for the first part of the
evening. Additional showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two could
develop behind the main line of convection, but coverage would
likely be limited. After 06Z, once storms dissipate, there is a
chance for localized BR to develop, especially for any areas that
receive heavy rain this evening. Confidence in this occuring is
quite low. Southwest winds near/below 10 kts becoming light and
variable overnight.

Monday...starting VFR. A chance for showers and thunderstorms
returns after 18Z. MVFR and even IFR conditions will be possible
with the afternoon showers and storms. Winds will be light and
variable in the morning, becoming southwesterly 5 to 10 kt by the
afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday night...IFR conditions with showers and thunderstorms
possible especially through 06Z. Depending on if any terminals
receive heavy rain, localized BR may again develop after 06Z. Winds
are expected to become light and variable overnight.

Tuesday through Thursday night...An unsettled and stormy
pattern is expected through late week. Mainly VFR conditions are
expected outside any showers and storms, however showers and
storms may briefly lower conditions to sub-VFR at times. Winds
generally from the west or south around 5-10 kts. High
confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence on timing
of precipitation.

&&

.MARINE...
For the evening update, the SCA will be cancelled around 930 for
the southern waters. The SCA was extended for another couple
hours across the northern waters.

Previous discussion...
Seas will gradually diminish through the evening. The Small Craft
Advisory will continue on the coastal waters through 10 PM EDT. Once
seas drop below 5 ft, winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria
tonight and tomorrow. However, strong winds will be possible in the
vicinity of any thunderstorms both this evening and again Monday
afternoon and evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Thursday night...Sub-advisory conditions are
expected through the outlook period, however seas and winds may
be high in and around scattered showers and thunderstorms
through the period. Seas may build to 4-5 feet Thursday night.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ450>453.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Staarmann
Near Term...Johnson/Kruzdlo
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...Staarmann
Aviation...Johnson/Staarmann
Marine...Johnson/Kruzdlo/Staarmann



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