Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 152048

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
248 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday. Expect northwest flow
through the period. A weak wave is moving through the flow today
which will bring afternoon into early evening isolated
thunderstorms mainly for the Eastern Highlands, Montana Divide and
the Big Lost range. Look for another wave to move the northwest
flow on Sunday bringing isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the Central Mountains, Big Lost range, and the
Eastern Highlands. Thunderstorms are again expected on Monday
afternoon but to a lesser degree than Sunday. Winds will pick up
across the area on Monday and to a lesser degree on Tuesday.
Expect drier conditions on Tuesday. Temperatures will be around
around normal to slightly below normal through the period. TW

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Saturday. Extended portion
of the forecast starts off with a brisk westerly flow in place
across the region as an area of low pressure is forecast to
gradually develop across the SW Canadian provences. As the rest of
the week progresses, this eventual low`s formation is forecast to
occur anywhere from SW Montana to the Northern Plains. As a result,
precipitation, temperature and wind details are somewhat in question
for Friday and Saturday. One emerging trend in the extended is the
high confidence for breezy to windy conditions across the area as a
result of the tightening pressure gradient. Winds are forecast to
increase to just below Lake Wind Advisory criteria on Wednesday, and
are forecast to exceed these values Thursday and Friday, with Wind
Advisory criteria winds possibly reached or exceeded. This means
winds in the 25-35 mph range with potentially higher gusts. As
mentioned, these winds could be higher or lower depending upon the
eventual placement of the low, but at this time breezy conditions
seem like a lock. Temperatures are forecast to fall below
climatological averages by Wednesday and remain roughly 10 degrees
below averages through the period. Shower and thunderstorm chances
appear relegated to the Continental Divide/Island Park region
Thursday-Saturday -- and again these chances could increase or
decrease depending upon the eventual low pressure placement. AD


.AVIATION...Expect VFR conditions today with only KDIJ expected
to see afternoon thunderstorms development and have vicinity
thunder for KDIJ but no other sites. Thunderstorms should stay
east of KSUN and KIDA. For KBYI, KPIH, and KIDA expect 10 to 15
knots of up valley winds, maybe slightly higher for KIDA. Look
for vicinity thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon again for KDIJ but
this time KSUN and KIDA will likely see vicinity thunderstorms as
well. TW


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorm development
again this afternoon and early evening mainly in zones 422, 476,
411 and norther parts of zone 410. Southern zones should escape
convective activity today. Will have more widespread thunderstorm
activity Sunday which will be affecting zones 475, 476, 422, 411
and northern parts of zone 410 again. The threat for thunderstorms
remains Monday and Tuesday with some drying expected Wednesday.
The thunderstorms will be the only significant impact the next few
days. Could see windy conditions with the drying by next
Wednesday with cooler temperatures. GK


.HYDROLOGY...The warm June temperatures with light rain has
continued to melt the high-elevation snow, keeping some rivers
and streams running high. The two main concerns are the Big Wood
River at Hailey and the Big Lost at Howell Ranch. A Flood Warning
remains in effect for the Big Wood at Hailey, which is expected to
remain in minor flood stage through Tuesday morning before
dropping back into action stage. A Flood Advisory has been
continued for the Big Lost at Howell, as it`s expected to hover
near minor flood stage through Tuesday morning. TW



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