Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 200534
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions should prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through the period, with mid and high clouds streaming across the
area. Light winds for the rest of tonight should increase out of
the south and southwest on Thursday morning.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 640 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to dominate through 00Z Friday. Some
thunderstorms this evening, mainly along and north of a Sweetwater
to Brownwood line, may produce severe weather. Otherwise, weather
nil.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Temperatures have warmed to near 100 degrees in the Concho Valley
this afternoon, with mid to upper 90s for most other areas. The
one exception is areas north of I-20 where temperatures are in the
upper 80s to lower 90s behind an outflow boundary. In addition to
that outflow boundary, other fine line boundaries can be seen
across central portions of the CWA. The hot temperatures combined
with dewpoint values in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees is
resulting in very unstable conditions. MLCAPE values as of 2 PM
ranged from 2000 to 4000 J/kg, and DCAPE values in the 1500 to
2000 J/kg range. However, ridging/warm temperatures aloft were
holding Cu and storm development in check. Still think that storms
will develop between now and 6 PM this evening, generally along
and south of I-20, affecting mainly the Concho Vally, Heartland,
and Northwest Hill Country. Storm motion will generally be to the
east/southeast once storms develop. And with the instability
available, and 0-6 km shear in the neighborhood of 30 knots, some
of these storms will be capable of severe weather, with the main
concerns being large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two
cannot be ruled out. Expect storms to move out of the area by
around Midnight tonight, if not earlier.

For tomorrow, the main story will be another day of hot weather.
Highs on Thursday are expected to warm into the mid 90s to near
105 degrees. Some areas will see Heat Index values as high as 105
to 110 degrees. With ridging strengthening aloft, thunderstorm
chances will lower once again. However, an isolated shower or
thunderstorm can`t be ruled out considering how hot temperatures
are going to be.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)

.One more hot day on Friday then thunderstorm chances increase
during the weekend...

(Friday)

Friday should be the last of the very hot days across the area.
Upper level ridging and will make for mostly sunny skies for much
of the day. A few rouge thunderstorms may develop by the late
afternoon across the Big Country and Northern Concho. Confidence
in this development is low, with only a less than 20 percent POP
chance mentioned across these areas. Highs on Friday will be in
the mid to upper 90s with some locations hitting triple digits.

(Saturday through next Wednesday)

A more typical summer setup will yield mostly sunny skies with the
threat for some isolated afternoon pop up thunderstorm activity.
weak ridging aloft will remain across the area on Saturday and we
can expect another sunny day with temperatures in the 90s. The
better chance for some increased thunderstorm activity will
arrive Sunday night, as an upper level disturbance swings across
the Texas Panhandle. Thunderstorms that do develop will have the
potential to produce strong downburst winds and heavy rainfall and
will be accompanied by frequent cloud to ground lightning.
Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s on Sunday. Isolated
thunderstorm activity will remain in the forecast for Monday and
Tuesday afternoon, as the unstable atmosphere across the area will
support surface based initiation during peak heating hours. Do to
the isolated nature of this activity, POPs across the area will be
below 20 percent. With the increased cloud cover across the
region, temperatures will hold in the low 90s, with overnight lows
in the upper 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 102  76  98  74 /   5   0  10  20
San Angelo 104  75 100  73 /   0   0  10  20
Junction 100  74  96  74 /   0   5   5  10
Brownwood 101  74  96  74 /   5   5   5  20
Sweetwater 102  76 100  74 /   0   0  10  20
Ozona       99  74  94  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07/99/99



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