Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 192022
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
322 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Upper low centered across the Tennessee Valley continues to
gradually migrate eastward this afternoon with gusty northerly winds
downstream in the central plains. Northerly winds weaken this
evening as sfc ridge builds into the area. Clear skies and good
radiational cooling results in lows tonight dropping into the low
40s. A few low lying spots along the river valley could be a bit
cooler in the upper 30s. Temp and dewpoint depressions are far
enough apart to mitigate any frost concerns at this point.

Warmer temps anticipated Saturday as southerly winds return as a lee
trough deepens across Colorado. Winds may gust up to 25 mph for
central areas of Kansas while warm advection increases throughout
the day. With forecast soundings mixing up to 850 mb, highs in the
lower 80s are likely across north central Kansas. While not quite as
warm, upper 70s will stay make for a pleasant spring afternoon
elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Broad upper troughing enters the western high plains on Sunday while
the sfc low elongates itself from southwest Oklahoma through
southeast Nebraska. Ahead of the sfc low across much of the CWA,
ample warm, moist flow is characterized by dewpoints reaching near 60
degrees while highs peak in the low 80s. Current deterring factor
for thunderstorm development from latest model runs is the strong
capping inversion in place towards the dryline. The NAM remains the
outlier between the model suite with the higher dewpoints and weaker
inversion for isolated convection to form near the dryline towards
central KS by Sunday evening. However, both the GFS and ECMWF hold
onto the cap and limit convection to mainly areas north of
Interstate 70, especially towards southern Nebraska where better
upper support exists near the upper trough axis. While effective
bulk shear to 6 KM is not particularly strong at 25 to 30 kts, it is
still possible for a few stronger updrafts to support large hail and
damaging wind gusts Sunday evening.

Precip clears eastward on Monday with mostly cloudy skies as the sfc
low pushes directly over the area. Southerly winds shift to the
north behind the low, gusting between 20 and 30 mph in the
afternoon. Better chances for precipitation arrive from Monday
evening through Tuesday as a slow moving, southern stream upper
trough translates across the southern plains. Based on the track of
the wave and both the GFS and ECMWF keeping the front well south of
the area , instability is overall lacking with mostly showers
expected. Dependent upon coverage of showers, temps may vary
somewhat on Tuesday but still remain the coolest of the week with
readings forecast in the middle 60s. Clearer skies return by
Wednesday with highs returning back to and above normal values in
the 70s for highs and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

VFR prevails through forecast period with scattered cumulus deck
developing during the afternoon. Northerly winds sustain between
10 and 15 kts with gusts around 20 kts through 01Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto



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