Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 160837
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
337 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Early this morning the surface cold front that was tracking
southeastward across the CWA yesterday was gradually progressing out
of the CWA into far east central to southeast KS.  As a result,
associated precipitation that had developed along this boundary was
shifting south of the forecast area, with shower and thunderstorm
development over south central to southeast KS being further
enhanced by a mid-level embedded shortwave that was tracking
eastward across the area.

Models show the cold front essentially stalling out over southeast
KS today through tomorrow.  The combination of this lingering front
and additional weak embedded perturbations within the mid-level flow
should result in continued scattered shower and thunderstorm
development over southeastern KS today through tonight.  While
models have been trending toward keeping the better precipitation
chances south of the CWA, have kept just some slight to low-end
chance PoPs in across far east central KS through tonight in case
the northern extent of precipitation extends into the area. If any
storms are able to develop over east central KS, they are not
expected to be severe as 0-6km bulk shear looks to be very weak at
less than 20kts. With this pattern in place, expect mostly sunny
skies to prevail for locations generally along and north of I-70.
Despite northerly surface winds over the CWA behind the frontal
passage, there doesn`t look to be much in the way of CAA today so
expect these mostly sunny skies to aid in boosting afternoon high
temperatures into the mid/upper 80s across much of the area with
low/mid 80s possible over far east central KS where more cloud cover
may linger through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

With the surface cold front still lingering over southeast KS into
Monday, have kept some slight chance PoPs in the forecast in case
the northern extent of any isolated to widely scattered
precipitation extends that far north into the area.  Otherwise,
expect predominantly dry conditions with highs in the low/mid 80s.

Precipitation chances increase during the Tuesday/Tuesday night
timeframe as a stronger mid-level shortwave trough develops over the
High Plains and progresses eastward over the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday.  This advancing mid-level shortwave trough may help to
push a surface cold front into the area Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night.  With modest destabilization expected through the day
ahead of this frontal passage and with 30-40kts of 0-6km bulk shear
in place, expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop
across the outlook area, with the potential for some strong to
severe thunderstorms.  However, there is still some uncertainty with
regards to the coverage for potential strong to severe storms as any
morning convection near the CWA could have an impact on the severe
potential by Tuesday afternoon/evening.  Scattered showers and
storms should diminish through the day Wednesday as the shortwave
trough shifts to the east, with dry conditions expected through
Thursday.

There is a chance for additional off-and-on scattered showers and
thunderstorms late week into the weekend as a mid-level trough dives
southward from Canada into the Northern Plains and High Plains.
However, there are significant model discrepancies with regards to
how far south this trough will track into the central U.S. and how
quickly it will traverse eastward over the area.  These timing and
tracking details will have a notable impact on where any embedded
waves end up tracking and, thus, where the best precipitation
chances may be from one day to the next.  As a result, due to the
low confidence in the weather pattern over the area by late week,
have only slight to low-end chance PoPs in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Expect VFR conditions with light northeast surface winds through
the next 24 hours.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan


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