Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 242101
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
201 PM MST Wed Apr 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong area of high pressure will result in considerably warmer
temperatures over the next few days. Friday will be the hottest with
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s from Tucson into the lower
deserts. Another system will bring gusty winds and cooler
temperatures early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest IR/WV satellite imagery shows that southeast
Arizona is under northerly flow aloft between the departing upper
low over Texas and a strong ridge over the eastern Pacific. A fairly
seasonable afternoon across southeast Arizona currently with near
normal temperatures and sunny skies with the exception of a few
build-ups mainly over the White Mountains. The aforementioned ridge
will be the main player in our weather over the next few days as it
shifts eastward. With 500 mb heights in the 582-585 dam range
Thursday and Friday this will result in well above normal
temperatures with the lower deserts topping out in the 95 to 98
degree range Friday.

This weekend it will remain dry with ridging still in control of our
weather with just a couple of degrees of cooling. The next notable
weather maker will move in early next week as a southern stream
closed low moves eastward from the Pacific into the Desert Southwest
Monday into Tuesday. The main impact as this system approaches looks
to be wind and fire weather concerns on Monday afternoon as the
pressure gradient tightens. There are some model differences with
the timing as the deterministic GFS is about 12 hours faster than
the ECMWF with the ensemble means generally somewhere between. This
system is rather moisture starved, though a few showers and
thunderstorm will be possible mainly across the higher terrain of
the White Mountains Monday afternoon through Monday night. A more
distinct cool down is then expected by Tuesday and Wednesday next
week with near normal afternoon highs and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 26/00Z.
SKC for much of the area with FEW-SCT clouds 8-10k ft AGL, which are
hugging the higher terrain. Surface winds WLY-NWLY and mainly less
than 12 kts with the occasional stronger gust. Winds decrease light
and variable after sundown. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather will persist for the majority of the forecast aside from
a slight chance of thunderstorms developing Monday afternoon over
the White Mountains. This is due to a passing weather system that
provides a greater impact on widespread breezy conditions.
Southwesterly 20-ft winds reach 15-25 mph and since minimum
humidities approach single digits in some valleys, elevated fire
weather concerns could be possible. Breezes continue thereafter, but
with slightly less strength.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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