Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FGUS73 KIWX 012216

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
516 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

... Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service 90 Day Probabilistic

This is the 90 day probabilistic forecast for locations along the
Kankakee River Basin in northern Indiana and for the Saint
Joseph River Basin in northern Indiana and southern Michigan.

In the table below the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise to or above the listed stage levels in
the next 90 days.

For example, the Kankakee River at Davis, Indiana has a flood stage
of 10 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 10 percent chance the
river will rise to or above 12.1 feet.

The St. Joseph River at South Bend, Indiana has a flood stage of
5.5 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 25 percent chance the
river will rise to or above 7.8 feet.

 Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
 ...Valid March 11 2018 - June 2 2018...

Kankakee River Basin...
Location         FS(ft)   95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Kankakee River
Davis IN            10    8.9  9.3 10.0 10.6 11.6 12.1 12.8

Yellow River
Plymouth IN         13    7.5  8.1  9.3 10.3 12.0 13.2 14.1
Knox IN             10    6.8  7.1  7.8  8.4  9.3 10.3 10.3

Saint Joseph River Michigan Basin...
Location         FS(ft)   95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

Saint Joseph River Michigan
Three Rivers MI      7    7.4  7.5  7.8  8.3  8.8 10.1 10.5
Mottville MI         8    6.6  6.7  7.0  7.5  8.2  9.3  9.8
Elkhart IN          24   22.9 23.0 23.3 24.1 25.1 26.3 27.3
South Bend IN      5.5    4.9  5.2  5.5  6.4  7.8  9.5 10.6
Niles MI            11    9.7  9.9 10.3 11.1 12.3 13.9 14.7

Elkhart River
Goshen IN            7    5.1  5.2  5.7  6.3  7.5  8.9 10.0
Cosperville IN       6    6.0  6.0  6.2  6.4  6.8  7.5  8.1

This long-range probabilistic outlook contains forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more
years of climatological data including current conditions of the
river, soil moisture, snow melt and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing the complete
range of probabilities, the level of risk associated with
long-range planning decisions can be determined. These
probabilistic forecasts are a part of NOAA National Weather
Services Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on
AHPS at www.weather.gov/iwx, under Rivers and Lakes.

...Snow Cover/Soil Conditions...
Snow cover is zero across the entire basin and the soil remains
thawed. Current soil moisture is much above normal due to recent
rainfall events. Infiltration of rainfall from future precipitation
events will generate a larger than normal ground water runoff
response due to the wet soils.

...Weather Outlook...
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8 to 14 day outlook indicates
that there is a 33 to 40 percent chance for below normal precipitation.
There is  40 percent chance, or elevated chance for above normal
temperatures. The CPC experimental week 3 through 4 outlook indicates
a equal chances for above or below normal precipitation and temperatures.

...River Conditions...
Area rivers were experiencing much above normal streamflow in the
Kankakee and St. Joseph Michigan river basin. Ongoing minor to moderate
flooding continues at this time, though river levels are gradually
receding. The rivers were free of ice and ice jam potential is near
zero for the remainder of the outlook period.

...Overall Flood Risk...
Given initial wet soils and above normal streamflow there is a high
potential for renewed minor to moderate river flooding through March.
Thereafter, the overall flow risk will trend to slightly
elevated in comparison to normal by the end of the outlook period.

...Flood Terminology...
The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property
damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible.

The term moderate flooding is used to indicate the inundation of
secondary roads. Transfer to a higher elevation may be necessary to
save property.

The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundation
and property damage, usually characterized by the evacuation of
people and livestock and the closure of both primary and secondary

This will be the last long-range probabilistic outlook for the
Kankakee and Saint Joseph river basins for 2018.


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