Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Southeast RFC

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FGUS62 KALR 041757

Eastern Region
NWS Southeast River Forecast Center, Atlanta GA
230 PM edt Thu April 4 2019

...The spring outlook calls for above normal potential for flooding
across southern Virginia, North and South Carolina...

...This will be the last spring flood outlook for 2019. We will
begin issuing these again in January of 2020...

Historically for the Carolinas and southern Virginia the river flood
season begins in early to mid January.  The number of river flood
events increases through late winter with a peak in early to mid
March and ending in April for the region. The forecast for above
normal flooding means that flooding will likely be more widespread
and more frequest than typical.

Overall...Late winter has seen a break in the wet pattern the
southeast U.S. had seen from fall into early winter.  In the last 30
days we have seen below normal precipitation over most of the SERFC
area. The potential for flooding is near to above above normal with
many rivers still near to above normal, and the potential for above
normal rain still forecast.  However, we are at the end of this
regions traditional flood season.

Past Precipitation...In the last 30 days, based on SERFC multisensor
precipitation estimates, all of Virginia and the Carolinas has seen
below normal rainfall...with a few areas near normal.

28-day average streamflows...All of the area is at least normal for
this time of year with many USGS stations showing above normal o. r
near normal. Even the current daily averages show near normal for
much of the area.

Reservoirs...Reservoirs throughout the region remain near their
target pool levels for early February.

Snow pack..There is no snow along the Appalacians from South
Carolina through Virginia.

Short term rainfall...The 7-day period ending April 11 shows a range
of rainfall totals.  Three Quarters on an inch in Eastern North
Carolina and Virginia with gradually increasing totals towards the
southwest with the heaviest totals near the mountains of South
Carolina nearing 3 inches.

Long term precipitation...Based on CPC long lead outlooks, March
still indicates above normal precipitation for the month over the
whole area.   The seasonal outlook from April through June shows
chances for above normal during that time period.  To see the
forecast from the Climate Prediction Center. here is the link:

The SERFC issues a variety of products through the year to update
the outlook for water resources.   The SERFC water resources outlook
is updated each month and can be found a the following address:

You can also find it from our home page which is located at
www.weather.gov/serfc.   In the Water Supply pulldown menu is the
Water Resources Outlook.


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