091
ACUS02 KWNS 100545
SWODY2
SPC AC 100544

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across
portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas.

...Synopsis...
Southern-stream upper low is forecast to move eastward across the
Four Corners and into the central Rockies on Saturday, devolving
into an open wave as it does. Moderate mid-level flow will extend
through the base of this wave, expanding eastward across northern
Mexico and into TX. Surface lee troughing is anticipated ahead of
this wave, with some northward expansion of a modified low-level
moisture across the southern High Plains.

A shortwave trough is also expected to progress through the northern
stream, moving from its early morning position over Lower MI
southeastward to the northern Mid-Atlantic by early Sunday morning.
An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent
shortwave, while an attendant cold front moves across the OH and TN
Valleys by Saturday evening and through the Mid-Atlantic by early
Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead
of this cold front as it moves across the OH Valley. A few stronger,
convectively augmented gusts are possible within any deeper cores.

...Southern High Plains...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the region,
within the broad warm-air advection regime ahead of the approaching
shortwave trough. Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate vertical
shear could still support a few updrafts capable of producing small
hail. This area of precipitation will likely persist throughout the
day, likely contributing to a fairly narrow warm sector between the
rain-cooled airmass over much of the TX Panhandle and Permian Basin
and the sharpening lee trough southeast NM and Far West TX. General
expectation is for upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints to advect into the
Trans-Pecos by the late afternoon, contributing to airmass
destabilization amid filtered daytime heating.

Ascent provided by a combination of modest upslope with convergence
along surface lee trough and gradually increasing large-scale
forcing should be enough to initiate a few storms within this
destabilizing airmass. Strong vertical shear should result in
updraft organization/supercells with any robust updrafts. Large hail
and severe gusts are both possible with any supercells. High cloud
bases and modest low-level shear should keep the tornado threat low,
although not zero across much of the region. If a storm can persist
farther east, better low-level flow and low-level moisture will be
in place, contributing to a greater tornado potential. In general,
coverage is expected to remain isolated, precluding the need for
higher severe probabilities with this outlook.

..Mosier.. 05/10/2024

$$