-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
560
FXUS61 KILN 190537
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
137 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Much above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions are
expected for Sunday and Monday, with a chance of showers and
storms returning as early as Tuesday. The next widespread chance
for showers and storms is likely Wednesday and Wednesday night,
with slightly cooler conditions for the second half of the
workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
For the overnight hours, mostly clear skies and light to calm
winds can be expected. There will be some patchy to areas of
fog, but most of this should be relegated to the river valleys.
Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Narrow mid level and surface ridges to build into the area
Sunday. This will allow for dry and mostly sunny sky conditions.
A warm day is in store for the region with highs generally in
the mid 80s.

The mid level ridge axis looks to continue protecting the area
from pcpn Sunday night. Axis of weak instability will slip into
areas to the north around the periphery of the ridge. Have a few
mid level clouds spilling into the northwest with lows from 60
to 65.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Warm conditions with highs in the 80s will be in place Monday
and Tuesday with the potential for a few pop up showers and
thunderstorms. A cold front will approach on Wednesday and move
through Wednesday night into Thursday. There will be the
potential for severe weather on Wednesday. There is still some
uncertainty with the strength of this system and timing. Due to
this, held off on adding to the HWO at this time until more
details are resolved.

After the passage of the front cooler will conditions will be
in place for Thursday with highs generally in the 70s. There is
still model variance and uncertainty for Friday into Saturday on
whether a cooler and drier pattern will set up or whether there
will be a surge in moisture from the south. Continued to limit
precipitation chances to the chance category until models come
more in line.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Although a few patches of Cu (and a very spotty SHRA) continue
to linger about the area, mainly clear skies should prevail
through daybreak and beyond. The only other caveat to this will
be the potential for BR/FG to develop, especially in area river
valleys (KLUK) and other prone areas (such as at KILN/KLCK). The
best potential for IFR/LIFR VSBYs will be at KLUK in the several
hour period around daybreak.

After the BR/FG burns off/dissipates, VFR conditions will resume
area-wide by 13z-14z. Some FEW/SCT VFR Cu will sprout about by
the afternoon, with the greatest coverage expected across the W
for KDAY/KCVG/KLUK. The Cu should linger a bit past sunset,
especially near KDAY, as a weak frontal boundary and a few SHRA
nudges closer in from the NW toward the end of the period.

Light/VRB winds will prevail through the period, going more out
of the NNE around 5kts during the daytime.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely Wednesday into Wednesday night.
MVFR/IFR ceilings possible Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC