774
FXUS61 KILN 080628
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
228 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and storms are expected through
Thursday amidst a continued warm and humid pattern. Afterwards,
cooler and slightly drier conditions are expected, though shower
chances can not be ruled out through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Showers are starting to spring up west and south of the CWA and
are expected to fill in relatively quickly with daytime heating
creating a rapidly destabilizing atmosphere. They will quickly
become deeper convection with thunderstorms. If discrete cells
maintain a decent margin from surrounding upstream storms, shear
and instability will act to promote supercell activity. Right
turning cells will also be a favored track given the southerly
inflow of moisture and right-handed curved hodographs.

Models remain in a various state of how these storms evolve,
but they should end nw-se overnight. A few depict a brief linear
evolution in the southern/southeast forecast area with training,
but most have pushed the precip into the south by 09Z and out of
the CWA by 12Z.

Overnight lows will drop from near 60 in the northwest to near
65 in northern KY and southern OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Deeply uniform southwest flow develops ahead of a l/w trough
north of the region with a wsw-ene orientation. Later in the
day, s/w energy will cross and mark the beginning of the next
round of showers and storms. Indications are that these storms
may be knocking on southwest CWA towards 00Z but the consensus
is to hold off until after this time but rapidly ramp up the
precip. Overnight, with a continual flow of moisture leading to
pwats >1.5". If the storms train in a nw-se orientation as some
markers are favoring, flooding will become the primary threat.

The favored location of the heavier rain looks to be over the
southeast third of the CWA, ending by daybreak Thursday.

Unless a decently opaque blowoff of cirrus precedes this rain,
temperatures are expected to reach 80 in the north, 85 in the
south. More of the same with the humid airmass is expected
overnight. Lows will again be in the upper 50s in the north, low
60s for the remainder of the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thursday will see more dry air working in, but lingering lighter
showers remain a possibility in most of the region, slightly
less so in the southwest. This is as yet another s/w piece of
energy gets pushed ene ahead of the l/w trough, prompting a
surface circulation to move east through the CWA. Trailing this
surface low, a cold front will turn winds sharply to the north
overnight, with lows dropping to a significantly cooler range
from the upper 40s to around 50.

This cooler air bottoms out highs on Friday in the lower 60s,
and clearing sky cover overnight drops overnight readings to
within a degree or two of 45.

The next upper trough works in on Saturday, with a ssw flow over
the region. The upper trough and potential surface circulation
will maximize the threat of rain in the extended forecast
Saturday afternoon. While this sw flow will only bump highs a
little bit on Saturday from Friday, lows should be a carbon-
copy from the night before. This flow will begin to modify the
airmass a little warmer each day through the remainder of the
forecast.

A not unusual variance in model depictions for the longer term
necessitates some inclusion of lower chance pops for both
Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures are expected to trend
towards normal as they should, and likely rise to above normal
Mon/Tue, but not to the extent that we`ve been seeing in the
here and now.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main weather concern during this TAF period will be the
potential for fog and stratus during the pre-dawn hours this
morning. Guidance hints at this potential, and pattern
recognition supports it as well with rainfall occurring during
the overnight, followed by decreasing clouds and a decaying
frontal boundary in the region.

Most of the uncertainty here is with the degree of clearing
clouds due to an expansive high cloud deck persisting from
previous convection.

Strong solar heating should burn any fog off quickly after
sunrise with a low-impact day expected at the TAF sites.

Clouds will increase near the end of the TAF period as another
disturbance approaches from the west.


OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night.
MVFR/IFR CIGs are possible Wednesday night into early Thursday
and again on Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...