526
FXUS64 KBRO 121150 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
634 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 421 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

The 500 mb shortwave that generated some convection across Deep
South Texas last night continues to move farther eastward this
morning. Will continue to mention some low rain chances across the
coastal waters for this morning. Otherwise, temperatures will
continue to warm through the period.

High temperatures today will reach into the mid to upper 90s, except
for the low to mid 80s at the beaches. Warmer temperatures combined
with a slight increase in humidity will allow heat index values this
afternoon to reach the triple digits. Low temperatures tonight are
expected to be warm, staying in the mid to upper 70s to around 80
degrees at the beaches. Monday will be very to hot as a dryline
approaches from the west. Highs on Monday are expected to range from
the 80s near the coast to the triple digits across the Rio Grande
Plains. In addition, the much  warmer temperatures and a slight
increase in humidity will allow heat index values to climb to
between 105 to 110 degrees, especially along and east of the I-
69C/US 281 corridor, Monday afternoon. A Heat Advisory may be needed
for portions of Deep South Texas Monday afternoon. The NBM
temperatures seemed a little too warm so, went with a blend of the
NBM and CONSShort.

Rain chances are expected to remain low through the period, with
most areas staying between 10 to 20 percent. The Storm Prediction
Center /SPC/ has all of Deep South Texas in a general thunderstorm
risk for today and tonight and a marginal risk for the entire area
for Monday.

Finally, continued slightly elevated seas will result in a Moderate
Risk of rip currents at the local beaches through Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 421 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

A weak cold front is forecast to intrude into the BRO CWFA Monday
night into Tuesday, with another weak cold front expected towards
the end of the long term forecast period. When combined with a
series of disturbances riding within a west-southwest to east-
northeast 500 mb flow, isolated to scattered convection will
result, generally in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame, with
the best chance of precipitation progged for Wednesday. Above
normal daytime highs and overnight lows are also anticipated, and
highs on Thursday may require a Heat Advisory for portions of Deep
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Light east winds and generally VFR conditions prevail across Deep
South Texas early this morning. Mainly VFR conditions are expected
this morning into the afternoon. However, some brief MVFR conditions
may be possible at times due to some passing low stratus and patchy
hazy. Otherwise, light southeast winds this morning will become
moderate to gusty later this morning into the afternoon. MVFR
ceilings are expected to return late this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 421 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Light to moderate southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas
are expected through the period. A slightly enhanced pressure
gradient will support stronger winds over the Laguna Madre and
Nearshore Gulf waters today. Therefore, Operators of Small Craft
Should Exercise Caution this afternoon on the Laguna Madre and the
nearshore Gulf Waters.

(Monday Night through Saturday)
Although a couple of weak cold fronts may affect the western Gulf
of Mexico during the period, high pressure will generally prevail.
Light to moderate winds and generally moderate seas will occur,
but the strength of the winds may require a periodic Small Craft
Should Exercise Caution, especially on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             91  79  93  78 /  10  20  20  10
HARLINGEN               94  77  96  76 /  10  20  20  10
MCALLEN                 97  78  98  78 /   0  20  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         98  77 101  76 /   0  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      84  79  85  79 /  10  20  20  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     89  77  91  77 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli
AVIATION...63-KC