150
FXUS61 KBTV 101951
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
351 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will develop during each of the next few days,
with northern New York seeing the most numerous showers.
Temperatures will continue to be at or below normal. The unsettled
and cooler weather continues through the middle of the week, when a
few thunderstorms possible as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 351 PM EDT Friday...Diurnal heating has caused a few low-topped
convective showers to develop, but limited instability is keeping
them light. The low- level of the atmosphere is also dry so some of
the lighter ones are not even reaching the ground. As diurnal
heating wanes, the convection will quickly dissipate this evening.
Tonight should be mostly dry, except across the St. Lawrence Valley
where a few continued showers are possible. The daytime cumulus and
stratocumulus should mostly dissipate this evening, particularly
over northern areas. However, it will take longer to for the clouds
to fall apart than the showers, so it will likely be close to
midnight before skies can mostly clear. Skies should generally be
either partly cloudy or mostly clear for the second half of the
night, with the clearest areas farther north. Lows will generally be
in the upper 30s and low 40s, but some of the colder hollows of the
Northeast Kingdom could fall into the low or mid-30s if enough
clearing occurs. A shortwave passes through the region tomorrow and
the extra forcing will bring more numerous showers, mostly across
northern New York. However, the convection will still be low topped
and there will still be very limited instability, so while some of
the showers may be heavier, thunderstorms are not expected.
Temperatures will be very similar to today, with highs between the
mid 50s and mid 60s. Another shortwave builds in Saturday night so
there is enough forcing for the showers to continue overnight,
despite the lack of diurnal heating. Overall, even though there will
be some showers for an extended period of time, QPF is low. It is
generally between a few hundreths of an inch over the Northeast
Kingdom to around a quarter inch over northern New York.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 351 PM EDT Friday...Isolated to scattered showers remain
possible Sunday with longwave trough centered over the North Country
and a weak wave moving through. Best chances will be along and
adjacent to terrain in the afternoon as heating helps destabilize
low levels. Forcing will be weakening with the wave tracking east,
so no thunderstorms expected at this time. Low amplitude ridging
will late Sunday and overnight keeping shower chances at a minimum.
Given the lower amplitude, cloud cover should be at least partially
present precluding strong radiational cooling suppressing widespread
fog chances. Still, if any areas do clear, some fog may form.
Temperatures will likely peak in the upper 50s to lower 60s Sunday
with overnight lows in the 40s as temperatures aloft cool.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 351 PM EDT Friday...Ensemble guidance continues to favor an
active weather pattern with the Northeast between major synoptic
features. This will keep passing waves/ridges fast moving and lower
amplitudes. A series of waves moving through the longwave pattern
will bring periods of showers, but strong forcing mechanisms will
likely be lacking. Best chances for thunderstorms will be Tuesday
where a passing wave could be coincident with max heating which
would aid in destabilizing low levels. High temperature trends are
expected to range from slightly below seasonal averages early next
weak to slightly above average towards the end of the weak. NBM and
GEFS members highlight Thursday as the warmest day with a ridge
cresting; highs could reach the low/mid 70s for lower valleys if
skies stay clear and models verify with an increase in longwave
amplitude. Otherwise, low temperatures will generally be around to
slightly above averages given continued cloud cover precluding
radiational cooling and a lack of cold air which remains locked well
north of the region. Outlook for frost continues to be minimal for
lower valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions should persist through
the entire TAF period. The current cloud deck in the lower VFR
range should generally continue for the rest of the day, scatter
out overnight, then reform during the day tomorrow. There is a
chance that fog develops at EFK tonight but it looks unlikely at
this point. There will be a few scattered showers that could
impact any terminal today, and then during the day tomorrow, but
they should be light enough to prevent any visibility concerns.
Winds are generally light and northeasterly and they will
gradually switch to southerly by the day tomorrow. LLWS is not a
concern.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Myskowski