268
FXUS61 KBUF 291026
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
626 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Pleasant weather expected through Monday morning as a surface high
builds across the region. The next round of showers and
thunderstorms will return for Monday afternoon into Tuesday as the
next surface low and cold front cross the region. Near to above
normal temperatures are expected for most of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today, a sfc high will slide east across the area, this will provide
for a pleasant late June day with dry weather and mostly sunny
skies. A few early clouds east of Lake Ontario may take a few hours
this morning to breakup. Afternoon maxTs will be in the low to mid
80s for WNY and low to upper 70s for areas east of Lake Ontario.
Lower Td values will make for a comfortable day. Some afternoon fair
weather cumulus can`t be ruled out, but should be limited with the
sfc high centering right over the areas.

Tonight, dry weather continues as the sfc high slides to the east.
Clouds wil increase some from the southwest as a warm front
approaches the region Monday morning. Warm air advection will start
as the sfc high slides to the east and as a weak south to southwest
flow develops. Temperatures for the night will be warmest across far
WNY only down to the mid 60s and cool to the east where less warm
air advection will occur, down to the mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday, a ridge of high pressure surface and aloft will drift
towards the east coast. Lingering subsidence and dry air will
continue to bring dry weather to the eastern Great Lakes for much of
the day, with chances for a few showers and thunderstorms increasing
later in the afternoon across Western NY. There will be a brief
return to heat and humidity, with the heat index topping out near
the bottom end of Heat Advisory criteria (95F) across the warmer low
elevation counties along the south shore of Lake Ontario into the
Finger Lakes and Central NY.

Monday night through Tuesday, a well defined mid level trough and
associated cold front will move east across the eastern Great Lakes.
Quality forcing for ascent and deep moisture will combine to produce
a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with rain coverage
peaking Monday night through early Tuesday. The rain will end from
west to east later Tuesday with the passage of the cold front.
Unfavorable diurnal timing of the best forcing may limit severe
weather potential, although some storms may produce locally heavy
rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Wednesday through Friday, a broad mid/upper level trough will become
established across the Great Lakes and New England. This will bring
an end to the high humidity, with seasonable summer temperatures and
comfortable dewpoints settling into the region. It will be mainly
dry, although a stronger shortwave moving through the broad mid
level trough may produce a chance of a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms Thursday.

Saturday, the next mid level shortwave and associated weak cold
front will move into the central Great Lakes and southeast Canada.
This feature will bring a gradual increase in rain chances later
Saturday as it approaches, with better rain chances arriving by
Sunday as the front slowly crosses the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some patchy fog may be possible through the first few hours of
daybreak, including at JHW, but should be limited with drier air
moving into the region. Some stubborn clouds east of Lake Ontario
will linger for a few more hours, but otherwise, mainly VFR through
tonight as a surface high builds across the region. Winds will
remain light out of the northwest to west and then shift to the
southwest and south later today into tonight. Winds may become
variable in some areas at times as well tonight as they weaken.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly from
late afternoon through Monday night.

Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly
early.

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR. Showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure building into the region today will result in light
winds through Monday morning. Waves are expected to remain below a
foot. Winds/waves are expected to remain below SCA levels through
mid week, though some choppy conditions will be possible after
Monday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...SW