267
FXUS61 KBUF 011043
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
643 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure building overhead today will gradually shift
east across the area through Friday morning supporting dry weather.
A series of fronts will slide across the Great Lakes Friday night
through Sunday bringing the next round of rain showers and some
rumbles of thunder.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Currently this morning, a passing weak secondary frontal boundary is
supporting an abundance of low level moisture and light winds. This
is acting to maintain the cloud cover and patchy fog across the Lake
Ontario shoreline, Niagara Frontier, the Finger Lakes region and
eastern Lake Ontario. Meanwhile, clear skies has been occurring
across the western Southern Tier, causing temperatures to fall into
the mid to upper 40s.

A progressive mid-level shortwave ridge, and associated weak surface
high will pass across the forecast area today. This will support
fair dry weather along with some warm air advection. Temperatures
today will warm up into the 60s east of Lake Ontario and low to mid
70s elsewhere.

The next shortwave trough will pass east across northern Ontario and
Quebec, Canada tonight, supporting a moisture starved cold front to
push across the region. Despite the frontal passage, mainly dry
weather will continue though a few showers will be possible across
the North Country. For those dry area, the frontal passage will be
noted by the patchy clouds and subtle wind shift. Temperatures
tonight will range in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridging developing over the central Great Lakes
Thursday will amplify over the eastern CONUS on Friday. This
will allow dry weather through most of Friday afternoon before
an area of showers approaches from the west. Northwest flow
Thursday keeping lake areas cooler in the lower to mid 60s,
perhaps even a few degrees cooler along the immediate Lake
Ontario shoreline. The warmest readings Thursday will be inland
with readings reaching into the lower 70s.

Warm advection develops Friday as the flow turns southerly with
the upper ridge parked over the area and a surface high centers
off the Mid Atlantic coast. There will be increasing mid and
upper cloud cover during the afternoon which may temper high
temperatures a bit, but most readings should get into the 70s
with some lower 80s for normally warmer interior sections of the
Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes. Deepening moisture and
the slow approach of the cold front will start to gradually
bring in chances for showers starting late Friday across far
western New York. However, given the strong mid/upper ridge over
the eastern CONUS ahead of a low which is closing off and
lifting well northwest of the area into Minnesota and Canada,
feel that the cold front may be even slower to enter the region
than models suggest, which could delay precipitation chances
until Friday night. There is the potential for elevated rumbles
of thunder Friday night with nocturnal moisture transport and
low level jet forcing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A vertically stack low pressure system located over NW Ontario
Canada will slowly drag a cold through the eastern Great Lakes. Due
to the slow progression of this front, and then a potential
secondary front have kept low end PoPs across much the the forecast
area into Sunday. We should see a fairly widespread area of rain
Saturday move from west to east, which then gives way to chances for
showers into Sunday. Brief surface high pressure builds into the
Great Lakes Sunday night, causing any lingering showers to gradually
deplete from west to east.

Dry weather looks to persist through much of Monday but yet again
another warm frontal boundary will begin to approach from the
southwest. This will introduce a chance of shower either late Monday
night or during the day Tuesday. Still some timing issues to work
out but have once again added chance PoPs reflecting the front
nearing and entering the region.

Overall, temperatures will continue to remain above average through
the weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An abundance of low level moisture across Lake Ontario has spread
across the Lake Ontario shoreline and North Country, in addition to
a frontal passage across the Finger Lakes. As such, the low level
moisture is supporting some patchy fog across the Lake Plains and
Finger Lakes region, impacting all terminals except JHW this morning.

Surface high pressure will spread across the region today, causing
all TAF sites to return to VFR. While a surface low well to the
north of the area passes east today/tonight, a moisture starved
front will pass across the region, supporting mainly VFR cloud cover
to pass across the Lake Ontario shoreline and North Country.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.
Saturday...MVFR to VFR with showers likely and possible
thunderstorms.
Sunday...Morning showers otherwise mainly VFR weather.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak pressure gradients are expected throughout the majority of the
week across the lower Great Lakes supporting winds to generally
remain below 15 knots. While the week will remain quiet, a few
showers and thunderstorms may be possible Friday night through
Sunday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ