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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151554
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Apr 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from Colombia near 07.5N77W to 05N102W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N102W to 03.5N107W to 06.5N119W to beyond
04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 01N to 05.5N E of 79.5W, and from 03N to 05.5N between 89W
and 96W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong
convection remains active from 04N to 12N between 113W and 126W,
and from 00N to 05N between 137W and 144W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Overnight scatterometer satellite data showed mostly fresh NW
winds off the coast of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro,
with strong winds noted north through west of Punta Eugenia.
This wind pattern continues this morning, between the subtropical
ridge over the eastern Pacific and lower pressure over central
Mexico. NW swell producing seas of 8 to 9 ft continues to move
along the coast of Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate
winds persist elsewhere W of Puerto Angel, with moderate seas.
Across the Gulf of California gentle to moderate NW winds
prevail, with seas 3 ft and less, except around 4 ft across the
entrance. Fresh northerly gap winds have been blowing all night
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and continue this morning, and
extend to about 75 nm offshore.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will persist off
Baja California through the early part of the week between the low
pressure over central Mexico and higher pressure west of the
region. NW swell of 8 to 9 ft will continue to move into the
offshore waters of Baja California, reaching Cabo San Lazaro by
late today, and the Revillagigedo Islands tonight, then subside
below 8 ft through mid week. Gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas will persist elsewhere through Fri, as high
pressure weakens west of the area.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong gap winds remain active across the Gulf of
Papagayo region, with 5 to 9 ft seas. Moderate to fresh N winds
persist in the Gulf of Panama, and extend southward to near 03.5N.
Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the
Gulf of Papagayo region, and across most of the coastal waters
of Nicaragua through Tue, along with a plume of rough seas
reaching the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador.
Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama
will continue through Tue night. Elsewhere, moderate winds and
seas will persist through late Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge is in place across the waters north of 15N,
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of 07N and west
of 110W. A surface trough is evident along the ITCZ from 02N and
12N around 119W, with associated active convection supported by a
mid to upper trough to its northwest. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are active near this trough from 04N to 12N between
113W and 126W. NW swell of 8 to 10 ft is reaching as far south
as 16N, mainly west of 120W. Southern hemispheric S swell is
reaching as far north as 16N west of 110W, mixing with the trade
wind flow, and will soon begin to merge with the NW swell across
the region. Meanwhile, a plume of moderate to fresh E winds and
8 to 9 ft seas in E swell emanating out of gap wind events
farther east is reaching as far west as 110W from 08N to 10N.

The northerly and southerly swell groups will merge along with
shorter period seas attributed to the moderate to fresh trade
winds to produce an area of 8 to 11 ft confused seas from 08N to
22N west of 110W by late today. Farther east, the plume of E
winds and associated seas from the gap wind events will diminish,
but lingering seas will interact with SE swell of 8 to 9 ft
south of 12N between 100W and 110W. These combined seas will
subside through mid week, leaving only an area of 8 to 9 ft seas
in the trade wind belt from 06N to 12N west of 130W by late week.

$$
Stripling