306
FXUS64 KFWD 131825
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
125 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1156 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/
/This afternoon through Tuesday night/

Clouds lingered across much of the region this morning ahead of a
weak cold front approaching from the west. Clouds will scatter
and dissipate slowly from west to east through the afternoon once
drier air moves in behind the front.

As far as rain and storm chances go, there will really be two
things to watch this afternoon and tonight. The first is storms
forming along a stalled boundary roughly between Del Rio and
Austin. These storms are being aided by lift from a shortwave
rotating around the base of the main trough currently centered
across the Central Plains. Storms will track northeast with the
mid-level flow, reaching Central Texas this afternoon. Some of
these storms could reach the far southern counties of the CWA
after 2 PM. Heavy rain and hail could accompany some of these
storms so we will leave the Flood Watch in effect across our
southeast zones until 7 PM.

The potential for storms along the front is the second thing we
are monitoring. Right now it appears the chances for storms to
develop along the front across the western half of the region
through mid afternoon are low since veering winds just ahead of
the boundary will limit low level convergence. The lack of
substantial convergence will result in insufficient lift to
overcome a cap of warm air aloft. Therefore, storms will likely
not develop and this solution is supported by most of the CAMs. If
storms do develop along the front it will likely occur along and
east of I-35 late this afternoon and early this evening when a
final piece of shortwave energy translates across the region. A
few strong to severe storms will be possible, especially across
Central Texas with hail being the primary hazard.

Drier and subsident air will move in tonight through Tuesday
night, bringing an end to all precipitation and clearing out most
remaining clouds. Lows tonight and Tuesday night will range from
the upper 50s to the middle 60s. Highs Tuesday will warm back up
into the lower and middle 80s.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday and Beyond/

Rain-free conditions are expected through at least Wednesday
afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s
across much of the region Wednesday afternoon with a few locations
across the DFW Metroplex and the Big Country exceeding 90 degrees.
Scattered convection is expected to develop along a sharpening
dryline well west of our forecast area late Wednesday
afternoon/evening gradually shifting east toward our western
counties late Wednesday evening/early overnight. We will carry a
low end potential for severe weather primarily west of Highway 281
late Wednesday, however the loss of daytime heating and the
overnight increase in convective inhibition should cause this
activity to weaken as it approaches our forecast area.

Strong warm/moist advection will transport quality low-level
moisture over North and Central Texas by Thursday with persistent
southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a mid/upper-level trough
streaming Pacific moisture overhead. A dryline will impinge on
our western zones by Thursday afternoon as a cold front approaches
from the north. Increasing synoptic-scale ascent associated with
the approaching shortwave trough and strong theta-E advection
should set the stage for multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms across the region in the Thursday-Friday timeframe.
Locally heavy rainfall could lead to renewed flooding concerns,
especially across our water-logged Central Texas and Brazos Valley
counties where guidance is highlighting 1.7-1.9" PWATs
(approaching daily climatological maxima). This area currently
contains a 30-40% chance of observing an additional 2+" of
rainfall through Friday. The severe weather potential seems a bit
more uncertain and will largely depend upon the ultimate position
of the surface and upper-level features. It is worth noting that
instability and wind shear look to be sufficient for at least a
low end threat for severe weather in the Thursday-Friday
timeframe, but continue to monitor the forecast over the next few
days as we further refine more specific location/timing details.

Model guidance starts to diverge in solutions regarding how long
the rain will stick around beyond Friday, but there is enough of a
signal to carry at least slight chances for rain into the first
half of the weekend. Ensemble guidance is beginning to suggest
mid-/upper-level ridging will develop overhead toward the Day 7-9
time frame, possibly bringing us a break in the rain. On the other
hand, this feature would cause temperatures to increase with
upper 80s to mid-90s possible by early next week (5 to 10 degrees
above-average for this time of year).

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1156 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Other than some brief MVFR ceilings to start the TAF cycle, VFR
conditions are expected with decreasing clouds through the
afternoon. It will be mostly clear across North and Central Texas
tonight and Tuesday.

A few thunderstorms are possible along a weak cold front late this
afternoon and early this evening but coverage will be too limited
to include in this forecast. It appears the better coverage of
storms will be across Central Texas. The best window of time for
Waco to see storms in the vicinity will be between 20Z and 00Z.
All storms will either dissipate of move east of the region during
the evening.

A light, mainly southwest, wind at midday will turn to the
northwest and increase to between 7 and 13 knots early in the
afternoon. A northwest to north wind at or below 12 knots is
expected tonight through Tuesday.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  87  66  90  69 /   5   0   0   0  20
Waco                62  84  64  86  67 /  20   0   0   0  20
Paris               60  82  59  87  66 /  20   0   0   0  10
Denton              59  85  63  89  67 /   5   0   0   0  30
McKinney            60  84  62  88  67 /  10   0   0   0  20
Dallas              63  87  65  90  69 /  10   0   0   0  20
Terrell             61  84  62  88  67 /  20   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           64  87  65  89  68 /  20   0   0   0  20
Temple              61  87  63  88  67 /  20   0   0   0  20
Mineral Wells       59  86  63  90  66 /   5   0   0   0  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ135-146>148-
158>162-174-175.

&&

$$