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000
FXHW60 PHFO 161321
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
321 AM HST Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry and pleasant conditions will prevail through the week
as high pressure builds to the north. Light to moderate northerly
winds will shift out of a more typical northeast trade wind
direction Wednesday through the second half of the week. As the
trades return, clouds and light showers will favor the typical
windward and mauka locations overnight through the morning hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The morning satellite imagery showed deep low pressure to the
north and its attendant surface front that moved through over the
past couple of days shifting east of the state as a trough. The
back edge of the low-level cloud band currently over the Big
Island will linger this morning with a few spotty showers, then
shift east of the area later today. Elsewhere, light to moderate
north-northwest winds have filled in over the islands in the wake
of the front, ushering in a much drier air mass. Dewpoints have
dipped into the upper 50s to low 60s, which have led to pleasant
conditions. The latest model guidance has initialized well with
the current pattern and depicts mostly dry conditions prevailing
through the week as high pressure builds north of the state. The
northerly winds will linger into Wednesday (light enough for
localized land/sea breezes to form), then shift out of the
northeast through the rest of the week. The strong winds at the
summits of the Big Island will continue to ease today through
midweek as the upper system moves away from the area. Although
mostly dry conditions will prevail, a weak upper trough moving in
Wednesday through Thursday, combined with a remnant low-level
moisture boundary settling south into the area may be enough for a
few light showers over north through northeast facing slopes. The
breezy trades will weaken briefly late Friday through Saturday as
a weak system passes to the north, then return to breezy levels
Sunday into early next week as high pressure builds to the north.

&&

.AVIATION...
A weak front near the Big Island will shift slowly southeast
today, with light northerly flow filling in across the island
chain. The winds will be light enough to allow for daytime sea
breezes and overnight land breezes in many areas. Lingering low
clouds and showers will keep some MVFR cigs/vsbys affecting the
Big Island early this morning, with improving conditions expected
later today. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected during the
next 24 hours.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across
windward sections of the Big Island. Conditions should improve
here later this morning.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence N through
NE of the mountains on the Big Island. This AIRMET will likely be
cancelled later this morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Remnants of the old front near the Big Island will dissipate and
drift southeast today. Light to moderate northwest to north winds
have filled in behind the front except moderate south to southwest
winds over the far east Big Island waters. Winds look to veer
through the day with light northwest to north winds, before
moderate to fresh northeast winds will fill in by late Wednesday
through Friday.

Surf along north and west facing shores has filled in overnight
as a mixed- period northwest swell continues to build at nearshore
PacIOOS Waimea Buoy, bringing elevated surf to exposed shores. A
Small Craft Advisory for Kauai waters for seas is in effect
through 6 pm HST today. This swell will hold through the day then
gradually diminish as it becomes increasingly north Wednesday.
Otherwise, a combination of southeast and southwest swells will
support small to moderate surf along south facing shores the next
couple of days. Surf along east facing shores will remain very
small, then gradually trend up as the northeast trade winds
increase later in the week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 10 AM HST this morning for Big Island
Summits.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai
Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters.

&&
$$

DISCUSSION...Gibbs
AVIATION...Jelsema
MARINE...Shigesato