Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
479 FXUS62 KILM 111041 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 641 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms today. Rain chances may decrease slightly for the weekend, but afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain a fixture into the end of next week. && .UPDATE... Lowered POPs slightly this morning keeping low chances at the coast. Fog is present inland pretty much around and west of I-95 and it should clear up through the morning. Updated 12Z aviation below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Some low clouds and patchy fog could be around, especially inland, towards daybreak. These should clear up after sunrise where we`ll have a more typical summer day. Activity should be focused along the sea breeze and gradually shift inland where there could also be some activity moving in from the Piedmont. Best rain chances for the day will be near the coast and anticipated coverage of showers/storms will be scattered. Severe weather is not expected but with the amount of instability due to the warm/humid airmass some storms could become strong with gusty winds. Flooding will be possible due to the lack of any major steering flow causing slow moving, heavy rain-bringing showers and storms. Highs near 90, lows in the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Weekend environment remains primed for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Abundant, deep moisture in place with precipitable water AOA 2 inches while the Piedmont trough and sea breeze will both act as triggers. In addition SBCAPE will be around 2500 J/kg, enough to kick off storms on its own. The only thing really lacking is mid-level support. No real shortwave energy with a weak 5h trough off the East Coast and a 5h ridge building over the Deep South. Not confident coverage will be more than mid to high chance, although the current forecast has pockets of likely around. Time will tell, but the lack of any mid-level forcing, which has been key to activity across the Southeast the last few days, does make one wonder if the rain chances in the NBM are a bit overdone. Temperatures around normal during the day with lows running a few degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Unsettled week ahead with Bermuda High and stalled front/Piedmont trough the theme. Weak ridging aloft Mon is shifted farther west Tue and a weakness in the 5h ridge develops over the Southeast. This weakness along with the Piedmont trough, sea breeze, and diurnal instability contribute to daily showers and thunderstorms. Coverage will be more than is typical in the summer with potential for a likely pop everyday. Deep moisture lingers through next week with precipitable water over 2 inches, exceeding 2.3" at times. The only surface feature of note is a cold front moving in from the northwest later Mon into Tue which then stalls in the area. This is likely to provide a bump in rain chances early next week. The deep moisture, increased coverage and storm motion under 10 mph Mon-Wed does set the stage for period of heavy rain. Hard to pinpoint any one day as favored for flooding, but will be something to watch. Highs above normal Mon drop below normal Tue-Thu with increased cloud cover and precipitation limiting heating. Lows above normal continue. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR to IFR levels of fog are popping up at our inland terminals here and there with low stratus being the more major issue, so have kept that in the TAFs through 14Z while it burns off with sunrise. Clouds may scatter out before then, but am being more on the pessimistic side in case they don`t. Into the afternoon we`ll deal more with our typical scattered thunderstorm setup with the sea breeze, have tried to put prevailing and more details for coastal terminals where confidence is higher on better coverage. Main issue will be lowered VSBYs in heavy rain. Activity will then migrate towards inland terminals more in the evening before we start to clear out tonight. Stratus will again be the main focus for tonight with threats of MVFR and IFR possible at all terminals but it may be more likely at coastal terminals this time around. Too uncertain to know at this point. Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... W winds will become more SW with the sea breeze this afternoon, increasing to ~15 kts. Seas generally 2-4 ft with a SW wind wave at 4-5 seconds and SE 2-3 ft swell at 7-8 seconds. Scattered showers and storms will be possible over the waters with a slight increase in coverage with the afternoon sea breeze at the coast. Saturday through Tuesday... Southwest flow around west side of Bermuda High continues through the weekend before flow becomes more variable and drops under 10 kt as weak front moves into the area. Speeds may briefly hit 15 kt Sat before winds drop for the start of next week. Seas around 3 ft Sat drop to 2-3 ft Sun and 2 ft or less Mon/Tue. The dominant wave will be a longer period southerly wind wave, 6-7 seconds, with an easterly swell also present. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...LEW NEAR TERM...LEW SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...LEW MARINE...III/LEW