515
FXUS62 KILM 170204
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1004 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet overnight as high pressure drifts offshore. Rain
chances will increase late Fri thru the upcoming weekend as
a new storm system advances eastward across the Southeast. As
the low exits the Carolina coast Sun, a cold front will push
offshore bringing below normal temperatures Mon and Tue.

&&

.UPDATE..
Some tweaking to hrly temps/dewpts this evening and overnight
applied...and a degree tweak upwards for tonights min temps
applied. This aided by the latest obs/trends meshing to the
ongoing fcst. Did add some additional patchy fog but kept
low stratus at bay. Due to a relaxed sfc pg, winds should go
calm for half the night at any given location and enough sfc
based moisture for rad fog to occur. Question is will the fog
become areas to widespread in coverage and will it reach dense
thresholds. Confidence too low to go any further with the fog
potential other than at a point fcst site, ie. at an airport
terminal forecast (TAF).

Marine, sfc pressure pattern and relaxed gradient will continue
with a SW-W wind at 5 to 10 kt. Seas generally 2 to occasionally
3 ft, primarily from a 7 second period SE-SSE wave.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Pretty quiet for most of the period with WV imagery showing
considerable dry air filtering in behind yesterday`s severe
weather- causing upper lows. Surface dewpoints haven`t lowered
much so we could still see some fog develop towards daybreak but
not with the vigor as this morning. The Pee Dee and possibly
Grand Strand have the best chance for some lowered visibility.
A light return flow will moisten the atmosphere tomorrow
bringing increasing cloud cover all day. A midday shortwave will
at least have opportunity to touch off isolated convection that
may or not become deep based upon how weak the progged
instability stays. Weak WAA will bring highs in the mid to upper
80s Friday after seasonable temperatures tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Warm front will lift north of the area Friday night. Poor
saturation ahead of the warm front will keep showers isolated
Friday night into early Saturday. Southwesterly flow will bring
Gulf moisture into the region by early Saturday and shower
chances will increase with the deepening saturation. An
approaching shortwave will combine with isentropic lift and
marginal instability to create widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms. During the afternoon, an approaching cold front
will expand the coverage of showers and storms. Marginal
instability and weak shear could produce a damaging wind gust or
two in the stronger storms on Saturday afternoon. Around an
inch of rain is forecast with higher amounts likely where
convective training occurs. Flash flooding and heavy rain may
become the dominant threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper low will maintain unsettled weather on Sunday. As a
developing surface low just offshore pushes a cold front
southward through the area. Mid level lapse rates and warm air
south of the front will likely lift along the front and create
another period of showers and thunderstorms. The severe threat
on Sunday is low, but a continued deluge of rain with previously
saturated soils will prolong the flooding rain threat.

Surface low continues to develop offshore on Monday. A thin
layer of saturation and cooler temperatures may promote a few
light showers, especially early Monday. High temperatures with
clouds and persistent northerly winds will be in the low to mid
70s.

A few lingering showers along the coast early Tuesday should be
overcome by dry air advection. It will be worth mentioning the
potential for lingering cloud cover as a subsidence inversion
aloft traps some low level moisture. Upper 70s are expected in
clouds and northerly flow. A few ambitious sites may see highs
at 80. A quick warmup is anticipated on Wednesday and Thursday
as low pressure exits the region and the next cold front
approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR to dominate the majority of this 24 hr TAF Issuance Period.
The exception will be overnight, generally between 06z and 13Z
Fri when fog between 5sm and 2sm to occur at all terminals,
except dropping below 1sm at times across the inland terminals
and CRE as winds go calm. After 13Z, days heating and 5 kt winds
should quickly dissipate any remaining fog. There-after, looking
at increasing thin then opaque cirrus with mid-level deck
possible late in the period. Enuf moisture in the low levels, sfc
to 8H, should be enuf for SCT diurnally driven cu by Fri aftn.
Could be VCSH late in the day Fri but confidence even low to
place this in any terminal at this time.

Extended Outlook... VFR conditions to dominate going into Fri
evening. The next storm system and associated periodic flight
restrictions will affect the area late Fri night thru the
weekend and likely into Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday... Wind will remain light and waves small. The
former will be caused by a weak pressure gradient, the latter by
the absence of swell leaving behind only the diminutive wind
wave. (backswell from the storm off NE coast will not come this
far west).

Friday Night through Tuesday Night... Low pressure will develop
late Friday night into Saturday as winds turn southerly and
increase. Showers and storms develop on Saturday and will likely
continue through the weekend. A cold front will drop southward
on Sunday as low pressure develops off the coast. Winds turn
northerly late Sunday night behind the low and increase to 15-20
knots with gusts to 25 knots. SCA conditions are possible as
this low develops off the coast through Tuesday. Showers and
storm chances continue until the low finally starts to move
offshore into Wednesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...MBB/21