Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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082 FNUS72 KILM 011612 FWSILM Spot Forecast for Carolina Beach State Park Rx...North Carolina State Parks National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1212 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 EDT on May 01. If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374. .DISCUSSION... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are developing along the sea breeze and this will continue through the afternoon. This complicates the wind forecast as prevailing south to south- southwesterly flow may abruptly shift to westerly or northerly as outflow pushes away from collapsing storms. Cloudiness will also vary considerably depending on the coverage of showers and storms. Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable. Fog potential for tonight is High. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the afternoon, then chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers late in the afternoon. Max temperature.....Around 77. Min humidity........75 percent. Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Max mixing hgt......800 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 10 to 14 mph. Max vent rate.......Poor (9216 mph-ft). Max LVORI...........4. Max ADI.............14. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........56 59 53 54 49 Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........SCH CHC CHC CHC Temp............75 75 75 75 74 RH..............77 75 75 75 76 20 FT wind dir..S S S S S 20 FT wind spd..6 6 5 5 6 20 FT wind gust.9 9 9 10 10 Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 Transp wind dir.S S S S S Transp wind spd.10 10 12 13 14 Stability.......C C C C B LVORI...........4 3 4 4 4 ADI.............8 8 9 10 14 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 Vrate mph-ft/1K.8 7 9 9 9 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR Sfc pres (in)...001 997 997 997 994 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Slight chance of showers early in the evening. Patchy fog overnight. Min temperature.....Around 62. Max humidity........100 percent. Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the evening becoming light. Min mixing hgt......400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 14 mph shifting to the west around 7 mph early in the morning. Min vent rate.......Poor (2783 mph-ft). Max LVORI...........9. Min ADI.............3. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........47 43 35 32 28 25 26 27 27 31 35 38 Weather cov.....SCH SCH PTY PTY PTY PTY Weather type....RW RW FOG FOG FOG FOG Tstm cov........ Temp............73 71 70 69 68 67 66 65 65 64 64 64 RH..............80 84 87 90 93 95 97 98 99 99 100 99 20 FT wind dir..S S S S SW SW SW SW N N N N 20 FT wind spd..5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 20 FT wind gust.8 7 6 6 5 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Transp wind dir.S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W Transp wind spd.14 13 12 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 Stability.......A E F F F F F F F F F F LVORI...........4 4 5 6 6 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 ADI.............13 8 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Vrate mph-ft/1K.9 7 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR Sfc pres (in)...994 994 997 997 997 000 000 000 999 999 999 998 .THURSDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Patchy fog early in the morning. Max temperature.....Around 80. Min humidity........65 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph in the afternoon. Max mixing hgt......1700 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 6 to 7 mph shifting to the northwest around 7 mph early in the morning, then shifting to the northeast late in the morning shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Max vent rate.......Poor (17224 mph-ft). Max LVORI...........9. Max ADI.............22. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........40 37 27 18 9 10 Weather cov.....PATCHY PATCHY Weather type....FOG FOG NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Temp............64 65 72 75 76 75 RH..............100 97 77 68 65 65 20 ft wind......N 0 N 1 E 2 E 4 SE 6 SE 6 20 ft wind gust.2 3 4 6 9 10 Mix hgt (ft)....400 400 1000 1700 1700 1100 Transport wind..W 7 NW 7 E 7 E 8 SE 10 SE 12 Stability.......F A A A B B LVORI...........9 6 4 3 2 2 ADI.............3 7 9 18 22 17 Haines index....3 4 4 4 4 4 Vrate mph-ft/1K.3 3 7 14 17 13 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR Sfc pres (in)...29.98 30.03 30.03 30.06 30.03 30.03 $$ Forecaster...Weiner Requested by...Jesse Anderson Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2412930.0/ILM .DELDT 05/01/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL Jesse.Anderson@ncparks.gov