Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 160912

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
412 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Central Illinois will see increasing chances of showers and a few
thunderstorms from the southwest later this afternoon and
tonight, as a warm front approaches southwest IL tonight. The
warm front will move into southwest IL on Monday and likely bring
showers and some thunderstorms to central IL out ahead of it. The
warm front will lift into northern IL by Tuesday afternoon and
continue chances of showers and thunderstorms Monday night and

Highs today and Monday will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees. Highs
should reach the lower to middle 70s on Tuesday. Warmer highs in
the low to mid 80s expected on Wednesday, with isolated showers
and thunderstorms possible. Summerlike highs in the 80s are
expected to continue through the rest of the week.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Radar mosaic shows isolated very light showers/sprinkles in far
eastern/se IL near the Indiana border and tracking eastward. Fog
was confined to far nw IL into Iowa and WI early this morning.
Temps at 4 am were in the lower 50s northern CWA, and mid to upper
50s central and southern CWA. Dewpoints over CWA were in the mid
40s to lower 50s with light to calm winds. Predawn surface map
shows 1024 mb high pressure over the central Appalachians while
1008 mb low pressure was over southeast CO. A warm front extended
eastward from low pressure thru central KS into northern AR and
central TN.

Much of the CAMs show a lull in showers this morning and into 1st
half of the afternoon as best forcing remains to the south and
west of central/se IL. Weak upper level ridging into central IL
today and may see some breaks in the clouds. SW CWA will see best
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms later this afternoon
as elevated warm front approaches sw IL this evening. Highs in
the upper 60s and lower 70s today, mildest from I-74 northeast
where better chance of seeing more breaks in the cloud cover.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms to ramp up from sw to ne
during this evening and likely continue into Monday as the warm
front lifts into southern/sw IL. Rainfall amounts tonight into Mon
evening are forecast to be 0.75 to 1.5 inches with locally higher
amounts around 2 inches or more. Our CWA is not in SPC`s Days1-3
outlook for severe storms. However, WPC has a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall over west central CWA tonight, and over much
of CWA (except far se CWA) Mon and Mon night. WPC still has a
marginal risk of excessive rainfall lingering over southern half
of CWA on Tue. Lows tonight in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees.
Highs Monday around 70 to lower 70s (mildest in se IL) with cloudy
skies and high chances of rain. The cooler MAV guidance is
holding highs back in the mid to upper 60s on Monday in central IL
north of I-70.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Warm front to lift up across CWA during overnight Mon night into
Tue morning and be over northern IL by midday Tue. Good chances
of showers and some thunderstorms Mon night and Tue, though higher
chance of convection to shift into northern IL later Tue and Tue
night. Highs Tue in the low to mid 70s, with upper 70s just south
of CWA.

The 00Z forecast models are showing a strengthening upper level
ridge retrograding westward from the eastern US toward IL during
2nd half of the week. This will push best chances of convection to
the west and nw of CWA Wed thru Sat with summertime warmth with
highs in the 80s from Wed through next Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

VFR and primarily dry conditions are expected overnight, though a
few spotty sprinkles are possible in the next few hours, mainly at
DEC and CMI. Light S/SE winds are expected overnight and will pick
up to around 10 kt through the day Sunday. A warm front will lift
across the region Sunday evening bringing showers and lowering
ceilings to MVFR.





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