903
FXUS64 KMOB 181839
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
139 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Some high end MVFR ceilings remain across portions of the area,
especially over the coastal counties, but general IFR ceilings are
expected through most of the period. There could be some locations
tonight where visibility is reduced to (3-5 miles) MVFR conditions
in patchy fog. Light west to southwest winds this afternoon and
tonight, becoming more northwesterly during the morning hours on
Sunday. DS/12

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Rains moving out of our forecast area early this afternoon, and
skies are even clearing a bit over portions of the forecast area
(especially over interior southeast MS and southwest AL). The
Flood Watch that was in effect for the southern tier of counties
was allowed to expire at 1 PM CDT. With rains ending and skies
clearing in some areas, temps have warmed into the 70s for all
areas, with a few isolated lower 80s mixed in. Still expecting
some mid 80s possible later this afternoon in those locations
where the skies clear.

Dry conditions will persist for the rest of the afternoon and
into the early evening hours tonight, but High-Res models are in
decent agreement in moving the remnants of the mesoscale system
currently noted on satellite over northern MS and western TN to
the south across AL later in the evening hours and possibly even
into the western after midnight. It appears that convection
associated with this feature will likely be weakening as it drops
south across the region, but a few thunderstorms will be possible
this evening into the early predawn morning hours on Sunday in
association with this feature. There could be an isolated strong
storm, but for the most part, the airmass has been pretty much
worked over and instabilities will be rather low, so no widespread
organized severe weather is anticipated. The activity should also
be weakening and moving fairly quickly to the south, so
additional widespread heavy rainfall is not expected either. After
any convection associated with this feature fully dissipates by
early Sunday morning, we expect a dry day on Sunday with no PoP
(for a change).

Low temperatures tonight should range from the mid 60s over most
interior locations, with upper 60s to low 70s expected close to
and along the coast. High temperatures on Sunday will rebound to
near to above seasonal norms, ranging from the mid to upper 80s
for most locations, with a few lower 80s possible along the
beaches. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      67  88  66  88  68  86  68  86 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pensacola   69  87  69  85  70  84  70  85 /  20   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      71  85  71  85  71  84  72  83 /  20  10   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   65  86  64  88  63  89  63  90 /  30  10   0   0   0   0   0  10
Waynesboro  64  87  63  90  65  90  65  91 /  20   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Camden      64  85  63  86  64  87  64  89 /  40   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Crestview   65  88  64  88  63  88  63  89 /  20  10   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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