371
FXUS63 KPAH 052318
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
618 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled weather pattern will see scattered showers and
  storms starting this week increase in coverage and intensity
  potential by mid week.

- Breezy south winds will pick up in similar fashion, offering
  30-35 mph gust potential Tuesday-Wednesday.

- A warm and relatively muggy air mass holds through mid week
  before a cool off with lower humidity returns spring like
  temperatures and dew points as we finish out the week and head
  into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Active weather continues this week with several rounds of rain and
storms expected. This afternoon, temperatures are in the 70`s to
near 80 degrees, on track to reach forecast highs. An upper
level disturbance is currently moving through the Mississippi
River valley this afternoon. Regional surface analysis places a
weak front across the Quad State region, SW through portions of
West Tennessee and central Arkansas. Radar imagery further
south already shows an area of rain showers and embedded
thunderstorms lifting through portions of Arkansas and north
Mississippi. Some cooling cloud tops have been noted over the
past few hours. This activity is modeled well by most CAM`s
which suggest it will be moving into SEMO/WKY this afternoon and
spreading northeast overnight. Albeit weak, low level flow
should help to advect moisture northward with a gradual increase
in CAPE (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg). Wind shear may gradually
increase over the next couple of hours presenting a marginal
severe risk with a wind threat primarily.

The upper level disturbance won`t be in any hurry to move
through on Monday. This should keep PoPs in place through much
of the morning and into the early afternoon, especially across
WKY and SW IN. While there is a clear signal of forcing,
coverage is a bit uncertain. Cloud cover and expected rain will
keep highs in the upper 70`s. Eventually this activity moves
east with the upper lvl disturbance heading into Monday night.
Further west, activity across the plains will move across
Missouri as a line of showers and storms. At this time, there is
some disagreement on exact timing of when this activity moves
in but it looks like it will be Tuesday morning. Ahead of this,
some isolated to scattered activity may develop as a warm front
lifts north early Tuesday morning. The above mentioned
precipitation add a sizable amount of uncertainty to how the
rest of Tuesday goes. Most guidance sources do show the
potential for organized severe weather potential along with a
Day 3 slight risk from SPC.

Wednesday continues to look prime for severe weather
conditions. Deep layer troughing will remain parked across the
Rockies and northern plains. A wave is progged to dig into the
central plains with increasing large-scale forcing tied to a
100+ kt upper level jet. This will drive a surface low from the
central plains Wed morning to the Midwest by Wed afternoon.
Shear and instability overlap still looks very conducive to
severe weather Wednesday with all hazards possible at this time.
Current thinking remains the same that convection moves through
in the Wed afternoon/evening. Developing low pressure to the
west will lead to increasing southerly winds Tuesday and
Wednesday. Wind gusts increase to 30+ mph both days. PoPs
gradually decrease into Thursday associated with the frontal
passage. Thu-Fri offers drier weather (lower PoPs) with lower
humidity and cooler temperatures. High temperatures by Friday
will be in the upper 60`s to low 70`s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A northwest/southeast oriented line of showers and storms will
continue to lift northward through the TAF sites this evening.
Heavy downpours and lightning are the main threats from the
storms; however, they will also bring a brief reduction in
visibility to around a mile or so during the heaviest rainfall.
As the warm front drifts gradually north through the area,
expected lower ceilings and some patchy fog to develop and
linger through much of the night into early Monday morning at
each TAF site. Conditions will improve by late Monday morning
into Monday afternoon as the front lift north of the TAF sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...KC