929
FXUS62 KTBW 141140
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
740 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

An active weather pattern continues as multiple rounds of showers
and storms move through the area. Another MCS will slide across the
northern Gulf and will likely be impacting our northern waters by
morning. Current models are keeping the bulk of the convection
with this round of storms mainly north of I4. However with the
current dynamic setup, some storms could be severe with hail,
damaging winds and a possible tornado. SPC currently has areas
south to Sarasota county in a slight risk with the remaining areas
of the CWA in a marginal risk.

Meanwhile as the MCS moves through today, an upper level trough
continues to move across the Mississippi valley.  The cold front
associated with the trough will bring another round of showers and
storms to our area beginning tonight and into tomorrow. Once again
with increased instability, 500mb temps around -9/-10C, and a strong
westerly flow, severe storms could be possible. Thus SPC, has placed
the middle of the peninsula in a marginal risk. Primary threats will
be hail and damaging winds.

Though ridging builds back over the area by the end of the week,
enough moisture will be available that, rain chances remain in
the forecast. By the weekend another cold front approaches the
area bringing another round of convection. Hopefully with the
multiple rounds of rain and storms, everyone`s grass will once
again be green.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 738 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Patchy MVFR CIGs this morning before mostly VFR conditions
through the early afternoon hours, though flight conditions may
deteriorate afterwards as a cluster of storms offshore approaches
the area. There remains uncertainty with this activity and overall
impacts but greatest precip chances will occur at Tampa Bay area
terminals where VCTS has been added to KTPA/KPIE for possible
restrictions. A lull in activity will occur tonight but another
round of storms will move across the area Wednesday morning with
additional restrictions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact
waters this morning. Primary concerns will be strong winds,
isolated waterspouts, frequent lightning and heavy rain. Winds
will also increase ahead of these lines calling for Small Craft
Should Exercise Caution headlines for most areas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

An increase in moisture has helped RH values remain above critical
levels for most areas, however they could dip down for areas that
are left out of the rainfall. Several rounds of
showers/thunderstorms expected through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  78  87  77 /  30  50  80  30
FMY  93  78  92  78 /  10  20  40  30
GIF  94  75  90  74 /  40  40  80  30
SRQ  91  78  89  76 /  20  40  70  40
BKV  93  72  87  68 /  50  60  90  20
SPG  89  80  86  78 /  30  50  70  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION//MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
AVIATION...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle