182
FXUS63 KTOP 081107
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
607 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated strong storm possible southeast of I-35 early this
  morning.

- Mostly dry for the remainder of the week with seasonable temps
  in the low 70s, heating up to 80s this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Early this morning a rather shallow surface trough is slowly
moving east across central Kansas. Warm/moist advection is
occurring ahead of this trough. At this hour, dewpoints higher
than the 50 are constrained to Oklahoma, but as the trough moves
further east this morning some of those higher dewpoints will
likely make it into far eastern Kansas. This moisture return,
combined with the surface trough and a mid-level wave, should
provide enough ingredients for some isolated thunderstorms to
develop by the early morning. If storms do form, they could
become severe with 50+ knots of 0-6 km shear and maybe as much
as 1,000 J/Kg ML CAPE. Thankfully, nearly all of the CAMs have
this potential activity occurring just on the far southeastern
fringes of our area and quickly moving out before gaining too
much strength. Otherwise, a very pleasant and quiet day is in
store.

A weak cold front may move into northern Kansas Thursday
afternoon/evening. Some isolated showers may form along the
front, but with little moisture and the best upper-level
support further east, chances remain low at this time. The rest
of the week and into the early weekend looks dry and mild.
Precipitation chances return Sunday into Monday, but models
diverge on timing and amounts, so confidence is low at this
point. Slightly warmer temperatures are favored for the weekend
into early next week, with highs in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR at all terminals through the TAF period. Some high clouds
will pass overhead. Northwesterly, breezy wind will develop by
the early afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Jones