Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 270612 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
112 AM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

Issued at 108 AM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

Aviation discussion updated below for 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Forecast is on track this evening. No major changes are planned.
However, did make a few local tweaks to overnight lows to lower
the usual cold spots a couple of degrees.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Forecast challenges mainly surround strength of northerly winds in
the morning, post cold-frontal, along with strength of low level
cold air advection on those northerly winds on Friday.

Currently, under a sunny sky and breezy north-northwesterly winds,
temperatures have warmed into the 60s at most locations across the
forecast area.

Tonight, an area of low pressure diving south out of Canada will
sweep through Minnesota and the western Great Lakes region dragging
a strong cold frontal boundary southward through this area early
Friday morning. While skies are expected to be mostly clear
overnight, light westerly warming winds develop and that should help
keep temperatures from plummeting overnight. Behind the cold frontal
passage on Friday, northerly winds increase, becoming quite blustery
at times and sweep notably cooler (below climo normal) air southward
into the region. Far northeast South Dakota and west central
Minnesota may not climb out of the 50s on Friday, while warmer
conditions closer to climo normal are expected back toward the
Missouri River valley region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

The long term begins quiet but cool as high pressure slides south
into the region Friday evening. CAA through the evening with 850mb
temps just above or below 0C by 12z, and light winds and clear skies
to allow for optimal radiational cooling will result in a chilly
morning on Saturday, particularly across northeastern South Dakota
and western Minnesota. Have again dropped lows closer to MOS
guidance, into the mid to upper 20s and lower 30s. On Saturday, a
ridge builds in, WAA develops, surface winds shift to the south and
the stage is set for a large warm-up. By Sunday a large western
CONUS trough approaches the region, tightening the pressure
gradient and resulting in strengthening southerly winds to over
30 mph for gusts. This, in combination with highs in the 70s and
RH in the 30s, may be favorable fire weather. ~35 kt 925mb winds
develop Sunday night keeping winds elevated until Monday morning.
Some thunderstorm development is possible across south central and
eastern South Dakota Sunday night as well along the nose of this
LLJ. 850mb temps climb into the 15-20 degree C range Monday, and
despite increasing cloud cover, surface temps could approach 80
degrees F. Thunderstorms will again be possible Monday as a cold
front cuts through a warm and relatively moist environment.
Cooler, near or just below average temps move in behind the front
on Tuesday and Wednesday to start May.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 108 AM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF forecast period.
Southwest winds initially will gradually become northwest/north by
morning and become breezy/gusty by late morning and through the




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