Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 241134 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
634 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 12Z TAFs.


.AVIATION...Mostly clear skies are expected through this evening
except for along the Rio Grande where scattered clouds around 5
Kft will be possible. Only very patchy fog has been reported early
this morning. Will keep a TEMPO for an hour for the coastal TAF
sites for possible fog/MVFR vsbys. Light winds in the morning
will become southeast by the afternoon. Expect high clouds will
increase from the west late tonight. Boundary layer moisture is
expected to be higher tonight leading to a better chance for fog
especially over the inland coastal plains. Expect MVFR vsbys with
the fog with possibility of IFR vsbys.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 408 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

The upper ridge over northern Mexico into the southern Rockies
will move east toward the region today. An upper low near the
Black Hills of South Dakota with a trough axis extending to west
into southern Idaho will move southeast into Kansas on Wednesday.
A short wave trough will move across the Texas Big Bend Wednesday
morning and into the Hill Country in the afternoon in advance of
the digging upper trough over the central plains.

A weak ridge axis along the coast this morning will keep light
winds in place. Patchy fog will be possible early this morning
over the coastal plains. Onshore flow will increase by this
afternoon the ridge axis moves farther into the Gulf and low
pressure deepens over southwest Texas. Boundary layer moisture
will increase with onshore flow tonight leading to the patchy
fog forming over the coastal plains into the eastern Brush

Deeper low level moisture axis will remain over Mexico today into
tonight. Convection expected to develop in the instability axis
over the higher terrain this afternoon is expected to diminish as
activity moves east across Coahuila toward the Rio Grande.

The front associated with the upper trough will move south through
west Texas tonight and through the Edwards Plateau on Wednesday.
Scattered convection is expected to form ahead of the front during
the morning and move southeast toward the western Brush Country by
late afternoon. Will continue forecast of chance PoPs over the
western Brush Country for late Wednesday afternoon.

LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Monday)...

Sfc front is prog to gradually push south across the CWA Wednesday
night while at the same time an H5 vort max and weakening H25 jet
streak are prog to shift across the area. Areas/band of rain/showers
should either already have developed or be in the process of
developing across the Brush Country early Wed evening. How far east
precip develops remains questionable as best moisture depth and
large scale lift is prog to exist across mainly the inland Coastal
Plains and Brush Country. Have highest POPs for Wed night across the
Brush Country and lowest across the N Coastal Bend/Victoria area.
Isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible as some modest
elevated instability is prog to exist. Relatively weak NNE llvl flow
will occur Thursday allowing for some drier air to filter into the
region along with relatively cooler max temps. Overall cloud cover
may clear some by late Thursday, but a return of rather dense upper
level cloudiness is prog to occur Friday as an 85 to 95kt H25 jet
becomes draped overhead. Reinforcement of sfc high pressure may
occur Friday resulting in a continuation of limited llvl moisture
depth and at/or slightly below normal temps for late April for
Friday through the weekend. Low level moisture advection is prog to
increase by Monday (about 24 hrs later than what guidance was
indicating last night). If moisture advection becomes great enough
and currently prog thermodynamic profiles verify...then isolated
convection may occur during peak diurnal heating Monday afternoon.
There is not currently a strong signal for this to occur, however,
and as such will only carry minimal POPs for inland areas.


Corpus Christi    86  65  84  62  80  /   0   0  10  30  10
Victoria          87  61  84  58  78  /   0   0  10  20  10
Laredo            92  69  87  62  80  /   0  10  30  50  10
Alice             89  63  87  61  82  /   0   0  10  40  10
Rockport          83  68  82  61  77  /   0   0  10  20  10
Cotulla           92  64  85  59  79  /   0   0  30  40  10
Kingsville        88  64  87  62  82  /   0   0  10  30  10
Navy Corpus       82  69  82  65  79  /   0   0  10  30  10





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