Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 211020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
320 AM MST Wed Mar 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures will continue through
Thursday. An approaching low pressure system will bring gusty
southwest winds and mainly rain showers Thursday and Friday. Fair
weather will return for the weekend before another round of
unsettled weather possibly early next week.


.DISCUSSION...Mid and high level cloud cover will continue to
increase and thicken over the next 24 hours as a large plume of
Pacific moisture streams into southern California/Nevada. However,
another day of above normal temperatures and dry weather is in
store as a weak ridge of high pressure keeps northern Arizona dry.
This will change Thursday into Friday with the ridge axis shifting
east of the area and a weak trough crossing the region pushing
that Pacific moisture (albeit weakened) into the area. This will
lead to the development of gusty southwest winds as well as shower
activity especially later Thursday into early Friday. Rainfall
amounts still look to be in the 0.25"-0.50" range over the higher
terrain with lesser amounts over the lower elevations. Latest
model guidance is pushing the trough through a bit quicker on
Friday, so POPs were decreased across much of the area Friday

Behind this trough, fair weather will return for the weekend with
temperatures cooling to near normal values for this time of year.
More unsettled weather with below normal temperatures could be on
the way early next week, but confidence is low at this point. Stay
tuned over the coming days.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions under increasing
mid- to upper-level clouds through 00Z. Light winds overnight
becoming southwest to west at 10-20 kts after 18Z...and decreasing
after 01Z. ISOLD -SHRA north of a KGCN-KPGA line after 00Z. MVFR
conditions possible over higher terrain. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A developing trough of low pressure off the West
Coast will bring increasing clouds, southwest winds, and warmer
temperatures to northern Arizona today. A slight chance for
showers will develop over the Kaibab Plateau tonight...and then
spread southeastward through the day Thursday. Southwest winds
will also increase on Thursday.

.Friday through Sunday...The trough of low pressure will move
across Arizona on Friday with gusty southwest winds and chances of
precipitation. The snow level will remain above 8000 ft for most
of this storm. Temperatures will cool to near average for this
time of year. Fair weather will return for Saturday and Sunday
with gusty southwest winds continuing.






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